Monday, December 12, 2011

Unshortable OPEN

Got moved into my new place last weekend, and spend most of the week just trying to get situated around here. I looked at the market a few times, but only have internet access on campus...and since I don't have a internet at my new place yet, my researching time is extremely limited.

I attempted to get back into OPEN on the short side today, but after trying through 3 of my brokerage accounts, I couldn't find any shares to borrow.  So now I feel pretty sad that i bought back my shares a few weeks back.  I guess I'll have to find a new favorite stock that destined to go to 0.  I'm going to keep trying each day though, because this stock is too bad to pass up.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Moving Day!

In the process of moving, so trading has been on the way back burner lately.  Loading up the U-haul and what seems like should take 30min has been about 3 hours! 

Only changes to the portfolio-  Closed short positions in OPEN and MGM last Wednesday.  MGM closed at 9.30 (short at 10.70).  And OPEN closed partially on accident.  I had an existing GTC order still in play from earnings day that never hit, until last week.  Covered at 33.05 (sold at 80.70!). Definitely my best short ever.   Still think the stock is a joke, so I'll be looking to jump back in when it rallies to the 37-40 range.  

Back to packing and getting ready to drive outta town tomorow.  

Thursday, November 10, 2011

A few quick looks

A few longs I'm looking at.  #1 is Deckers (DECK).  Good growth stock that has sold off a bid in the last couple days.  Looks good for a quick rebound of 5% or so.


Another stock I've been looking at could be changing it's trend...MTW  It'll be key that it holds it current levels, and a  rally from here could be a good indication that the downtrend is broken.



And look what's back from the dead.  Long considered a great value stock, but the price action never showed it, is finally showing some life.  Maybe it's time to pick up some to stash away.  



Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Gambling sometimes pays off!

Again, plan on posting more as earnings wind down and i'm getting back into the swing of things now with the market.  Conference Championships were this weekend and it was a great weekend.  The men ran solid and finished where predicted, and with a team loaded with 6 freshman, that's sometimes all you can ask for.  The women pulled out the victory for the first conference title in 22 years!

Anyways, my big short so far this year has been OpenTable (OPEN).  A once darling momentum stock that really, doesn't has a business model that is immune to fierce competition.  I shorted the stock back in the summer at 80.70, and after a brief move to almost 90, it's been in a free-fall since.   It touched under 40 before the October rally took it back to the 51+ area just 5 days ago.  It's deteriorated the last week and was trading at 43 today.


I was going to take the rational, safe, and smart route of cover the short today prior to earnings being released after the bell.  But, I held off after looking at the chart and figuring that at most it would rally $5-6 on a great report.  This is where my gambling and trading mentality collided.  I was taking a 50/50 bet that the stock either rally hard or sell off.  Although good odds, I would never walk up to a roulette table in Vegas and throw down that kind of money on red or black and hope for the best...but that's what I did today.  My only real rational was I was already "up" by 37pts., so I could afford a loss of 5 to let it ride.  But I shouldn't have considered at all where the stock came from, but where it was now---I would never buy a stock going into earnings with the chance to loss that much on one announcement, but my today I broke that rule.

Well after getting home from practice and checking the press release and after hours trades, the stock is down almost 15% after hours (~$6.40).  The feeling was like I hit my number playing craps on got paid.  A great feeling, but really it's not how I should be going about my trades.  But you know what?  Today, it feels great to be a gambler...and maybe I'll just close out the trade tomorrow and buy a iPad with my winnings!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Still here

Still, busy with coaching/recruiting/looking at moving logistics.  Mostly sitting on the sidelines waiting for earnings season to blow through without getting hammered.

NFLX.  Crazy.  That's why you don't make major changes.  Again, I know it was unsustainable, but adding $1-2/month now would have kept most of the subscribers, and they could have slowly bled the price up and they wouldn't be in the mess they are now.

Opened a small short position in MGM yesterday at 10.70 right at the close.  This is the high end of it's short term range and in a longer term down trend.  Should be easy to get out in the 10-10.20 range, and lower if this market turns around.  LVS reports earnings on tomorrow that could make some noise, and MGM reports next week.



Amazon is down sharply today after earnings.  I think this is an interesting case:  The stock is getting hammered, but most of the news out there are defending the company and it's long term outlook because of costs it's incurring now.  Is this a smart time to pick up shares, or stay away because all the analysts are trying to keep it propped up to sell out?

So, like most traders, I'm just waiting for the "EU to be saved" announcedment and subsequent move.  Out of boredom I've played with FSLR today making some pocket change on a couple day trades.  Might have to enter another short here at 47.30...

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Tuesday Late Night Thoughts

Again, busy with all things but the market.  But with these conditions, it's not the worst thing in the world.  It seems like I've been putting more time into selling crap on Ebay than dealing with the market.  A few thoughts:

Looking at Gold and the GLD....I think it's in no mans land right now and could shoot up or down really quick from these levels.  So it's more of a daytrade or couple day trade at the most (but most things are these days!)

CROX reported earnings and forecasted below analyst expectations.  This stock has been on a tear since it's peak in '07.  The gap down today was a tempting entry to take a short, but since I've been out of the swing of things lately, I decided to wait and see what tomorrow brings.  It could be a 5% recovery up, or another swing lower.  I'm not ready to gamble yet, but I think in the near term, this thing will push towards $12.

Apple reported after the close today and missed estimates...which hasn't happened 3 years now.  Traded down 6% after hours.  With the step down and death of Steve Jobs, this is the last thing this company wanted to show it would go on fine without him.  Also, for the broader market, it's not good when a leader trips up.

Technical are looking stronger for a new move out of this trading range to the upside, but I'll wait and see.  The 14% move over the past 2 weeks before yesterday was too quick for me...especially for individual sectors like energy that rallied even harder.  Wait and see.....

It's a daytraders market and I don't have the time for that right now, so i'm alright just sitting on my positions.  I'll bring more interesting stuff later, but for now, it's time to get ready for an early morning practice tomorrow...with rain expected and temps around 40 degrees at practice time.  Ugh.  

Friday, October 14, 2011

Trading Update

It has been a busy week outside of the trading world for me, which accounts for the lack of posts.  I had an interview in the twin cities on Monday and just got back in Illinois in time for practice on Wednesday.  Followed that up with one of my best workouts in a long time (2mile @ 9:59, 2min rest, 3xmile @ 4:59, 5:01, 4:59 w/ 1:30 rest)...and it felt pretty easy.  I'm getting back into pretty good shape now.  We'll see how a 5k goes Saturday morning.

Trade idea's...well, just checking the market has been a struggle.  I know that OPEN and BID have rallied pretty well with this market, but I'm still committed to another leg down.  There was a good chart posted on SlopeofHope today that mentioned BID.  My last move was on Friday when I closed my FSL short for $10.70...making a whopping 0.37/share on that trade.....but the move was as a protection from what ended up happening...the stock up to 12.51 after today's 7.8% gain.  So as of now, that trade may have made no money, but it's one of the one's I feel best about this month (assuming it doesn't go bankrupt in the next few days).

Stocks of interest to me right now.   On the short side:  MGM.  Missed the last leg down, but it's setting up for another good fall to the $8 range.


....heck, I could find a ton of great short opportunities after the rally we've had the past week.  Just about every garbage company has taken off and with any market weakness will get hammered again (same goes for Energy and Financial stocks)

I wouldn't trade anything on the long side right now until we get some sort of consolidation or sideways movement to work off the short term overbought market conditions.  NKE is looking great though, and a move back to challenge it's 52wk high of $94.2x looks likely.  The next few days will be really focusing on getting back into the charting/research to get ready for the upcoming earnings season.

Tomorrow we have a meet in the afternoon, and I plan to get my run in the morning, so I may miss most of the day, but that's probably been a good thing this week...with my short bias right now, It prevented me from possibly making some losing trades.  So, just a post to show that I'm alive...and tonight, another BREWERS WIN!!!!!
And for that...a revisit to one of Niger Morgan's best interviews of the year.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Brewers Win!!!!!

Niger Morgan aka Tony Plush aka Tony Hush aka Tony Gumble aka Tony Cluch comes through for the win!   Brewers....Badgers.....Packers...it's great being a Wisco Fan!




Gotta love the Uecker calls!

The 10th inning --Gomez and T-Plush for the win!

Brewers Clinching Hit!

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Turnaround Tuesday Rally

Today was a frustrating day.  Things were looking pretty through the first 5.5 hours of the trading day.  BID had hit a new low (but had rebounded), OPEN was tanking more, FAZ was up to 79, and while AAPL and my longs I hold were down, I was overall profiting on the day...and I was happy to see GRMN up amid all the red.  The frustrating came with an hour to go into trading. I was getting bored watching FSL, so I put in an order at the bid, that never hit.  I moved it up a couple times, it never hit.  I put in a buy for NKE at 82.90, after already being lazy and missing the rally from lower prices earlier in the day, i entered a trade...just then, the stock started up jumping up.  I didn't wan to chase, but at 83.55 I made another attempt, and missed again, then watched it in horror move to a high of $85.90.  Entering that trade 30 sec. sooner I would have picked it up, and instead i missed out on a potential $3 gain.  To top that off, before leaving for practice, I entered a smaller buy for $84.30 that didn't hit, but yahoo after hours quote shows the last sale at $84.27...so why don't I have any shares????  Some days this day can piss you off...this after I missed out on getting WYNN by a few cents after hours yesterday at $109.50...and watching it close over $118 today.  Put it into the shoulda, coulda, category of almost great-timed trades.

Enough of the whining.  Reading the news and bloggers...obviously nobody knows anything...except that any whisper of a bailout is going to rally the market...whether it will really help or not in the long term, is irrelevant.   For trades, I feel like I missed the best prices for WYNN and NKE, GLD is in no-mans land and I would buy if it goes a few points lower.  Not interested in buying energy stocks at all.  

SHLD might be a short candidate.  I'm worried about the talk of the real estate leasing of the stores, but with the economy as it is, it's not the same play it would have been 6-7 years ago, and price spikes like today get punished.


Really, if I have the time tomorrow between the couple people I've got coming in for workouts, and lunch with a few other coaches in the area, I'm looking at going after the TNA/TZA daytrade route.  The movement is so fast, money is ready to be made.  Though since this market is so unpredictable, I may just start by buying a 100 shares of each, then selling the one after it rallies, and *hope* the market reverses for a bit from there (or sell one quickly and let the other roll).  It might be stupid play, but I want to try something new to scalp some money from this fast moving market.

So right now, the stocks I'm looking for opportunities to buy:  NKE, WYNN, MCD, UA, FFIV, POT, and FSLR is starting to look attractive for a short term trade for a bounce.

There are not many stocks I'm looking to short.  Besides SHLD, I'm planning to close my FSL soon (still a doomed company, but I think I'll have a better chance to get back in), and OPEN and BID are in that same category.   I'll trade FAZ more for the financials, but that's still playing with fire at this point.  I can't locate shares for P and LNKD, and the options play just hasn't materialized.  I'm still looking at charts for more, but really, this is a day traders market, so it's all about what garbage headline influences the day.  

Monday, October 3, 2011

Badgers vs. Nebraska

If you've never been to a Wisconsin game, you're missing out, from the Wisco vs. Nebraska game this weekend:

Jump around in full HD:

Build me up Buttercup 

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week update and taking off for the weekend

This week has shown no clear direction and no real reason to take any positions long or short.  I did sell my FAS position today for a loss, and i'm not real happy about that trade overall.  I rushed into it with the expectation that the market would rally the rest of the day, but the market crumbled and instead of getting out, I held through the close.  On top of that, although tomorrow could go either direction depending on the Euro news of the day, I should have held since end of quarter window dressing for fund managers should keep stocks up through tomorrow.  I'm not so pissed about the loss of cash, but the timing was not the best.

Looking for buys, I'm intrigued with WYNN and LVS.  Even with the issues in Japan, just like the EU, these stocks are going to bounce one day to the next depending on the news out that day.  WYNN might be a stock I pick up if I have a few minutes in the morning and it drops a bit more.  Also, seeing NKE down another buck or two would be nice, but the tides seem to be changing with AAPL and the other strong players in this market slipping over the last few days.

Tomorrow will be a no-trade day for me.  Team leaving tomorrow morning for a meet on Saturday, so I should see the open, but that's about it.

One final note...don't always believe those charts...even a bullish reversal in FSLR a few days ago couldn't save the stock from a huge drop in the ensuing days.

If I don't post before the weekend, big sports weekend.  I can't remember the time when all my favorite sports teams were so phenomenal...all at once!  But the two biggies...UW vs. Nebraska & Brew Crew vs. Arizona.  Combine that with our races...come Sunday night I'm going to be exhausted.


Go Badgers & Brewers!  (and Packers & Bills!)

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

A few quick notes, NFLX, P, OPEN, and FAS buy

With the run up the last couple days, things are looking primed again to short...but not yet.  Europe is "maybe" going to be bailed out..big surprise.  I think the rally continues today for the rest of the day and we end up even higher, so i'm looking at a few ETF's to play long and make a little money that.  On the short side, I'm looking at stocks like MGM (a safer short) and P (up 20% the last couple days).

On Friday i got in and out of GLD, and sold of 60% of my FAZ position (which was timely, but wish I would have sold it all now!).  I also had a order in to close my BID short, but it just missed by a few cents, and yesterday I didn't go through with closing it out.  Today I just bought shares of FAS to play this rally day and hedge against my FAZ, with the plan to get out by the end of the day.  I think the S&P will get over 1200 (at 1193 now) and maybe hit 1205 before the close.

A stock that may find some momentum again, Sears Holding has put up advertising for leasing most of it's Sears and Kmart stores, making it more of a real estate play.  This was the big talk a few years back when he took over the company, and nothing came of it, but with the stock down from the 200 level, it may finally be coming true.  Watch this one swing a lot near term and wouldn't be surprised to see a 3-4 day rally of the stock.

A few reads:
The insiders have quit buying stocks
But, here are 29 stock insiders and hedge funds are buying!
Whitney Tilson on the Netflix Fiasco
John Dorfman buys/sells of the biggest 20 stocks
Companies that employees are losing hope
A first-Warren Buffet to buy back shares

Last night looking at NFLX i was hoping to see it drop down to the 128 level for a buy and play the bounce, but with it down on today's big move, I don't feel like the risk is worth it today.  OPEN is one of my shorts that i've been holding on tightly, and while it's gotten back up to 50 today, I still like the chart:

Friday, September 23, 2011

Buying Gold

Just picked up GLD at 159.35.  Definitely a risky play with the sell off today, but I like these deep sell-offs for a quick flip.  If the economy is going to the pits, GLD will be bought up again, and it finally hit an area I was looking for when I posted the chart a couple weeks ago.  Here's the current chart, not real time so this is before it sold off even more.  

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Post Fed-day Fall Off

Well, today I woke up and saw exactly what I wanted to see with my portfolio....a lot of green, due to all the red on the screen.  BID, OPEN, and FAZ are huge gains for me today, and although I am kicking myself for not getting out of NOV in my long term portfolio yesterday, it could have always turned out differently.  Because the prospects of economic slowdown are going to kill anything energy related, and while it's been a great performer this year, NOV could go down to the 40 range pretty quick as oil drops.  But long term I still like this stock alot along with HAL and SLB

There are some good looking prices out there, but I'm not interested in buying anything today.  I might try a daytrade to pick up some change, but this could get really ugly going into the close and tomorrow as people bail to feel comfortable going into the weekend.

Patience is really being rewarded with OPEN and BID right now.  OPEN chart is just plain ugly (now at 44.27).  With my short initiated at $80.70 in mid-June (and sweating a little as after an initial drop, it rode up to $90), it's only a few points away from a 50% gain.  Not really sure where to exit here...it's breaking the bottom part of it's down trend line, so technically, it could just be getting started...but but it does break $40 in the next few days, I'll definati


FAZ is breaking out, and anther one i was sweating when I increased my position 2 weeks ago, and if it can get above that 73 area, it looks like 80 is well within reach:


For safety, the LQD is still a great pickup for the long term portfolio, 4.5% dividend and moving up with any weakness in stocks:


For the daytrade route, I'm starting to look at TNH again.  This was my missed opportunity as it zoomed from 120 to almost 200, and has fallen off a cliff in the last couple days.  Didn't even see it in the 120's this morning, but has rebounded solidly, and just during this post it's gone from negative to up $4.  Ride this one with caution:


And finally, while the chart looks ugly, BIDU is really getting punished today down a ridiculous 12%.   Though I'd wait until right before the close to make any buys, this would be on the top of the list (right along with NFLX..it's holding up today after the rough week...I could easily see a $10-15 bounce back before any larger move lower is made).


I have to marvel on days like today...where my long term holdings are getting hurt, but my trading account is taking off, so it's a mixed bag of feelings looking at the market.  I never really shorted stocks until this year, and now I'm almost preferring it as opposed to buying.  It seems like when things are bad, you make a lot of money in a hurry...much faster than when it's going up.  So day's like today it's nice to sit back and watch the account values rise when it could be a day of panic.

For more short idea's, I would check out the list of today's top losers and those hitting new all time lows

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Fed Day Announcement

Pretty straight forward.  Tomorrow's fed announcement should move the market one way or another.  Fed day usually results in a spike reaction from the announcement, then a reversal of that move.  Now everyone knows that, so when will it finally NOT hold true?

Reading other traders and many were lightening up positions heading into Wednesday to not get caught on the wrong side of a major move.  I was going to do the same, but I wanted to see how tomorrow looked before the announcement, and I stuck with my short positions for 2 reasons:

1.  My long term accounts are all invested in companies for long term growth...so my trading accounts are a hedge of protection for that.
2.  I'm comfortable with my shorts anyway.  Thinking about it now, closing out my FAZ position would be smart, and I almost closed my BID order today but then the market started selling off and figured another night to think about it would hurt.  And finally, no matter the Fed announcement tomorrow, OPEN is doomed, so why get out now.

I never did get that Pandora short yesterday...i couldn't find shares from any of my brokers to short, and I just didn't feel comfortable going at it with options with the upcoming announcement.  Be ready for a ride (maybe).

And I'm somewhat hoping for no action..lets rip the band-aid off and just deal with the short term consequences...it'll keep us from delaying the inevitable.

GOP warns more easing may hurt the economy

Monday, September 19, 2011

The week ahead, Sept. 19th, Pandora & Netflix

Markets are down through Mid-day today, and after last week's great move up, it shouldn't come as a total shock.  The question now comes does it give all (and more) back this week, or is this just a pause and the rebuilding continues?  My outlook for the week is to see today hold and tomorrow spend more time in the red (whether that means an open up and fall during the day, or open lower).   After that it's more of a guess than what I just made.  Either way, in today's action you there are a few standouts bucking the trend...AAPL, CMG, and WYNN are some of my long favorites doing well.

Pandora is up 5% with only some rumored hope that Google or Sirius will buy them up.  I think that talk is premature because any company knows that the overall business model is weak and they'll be able to buy them up in the next year for a cheaper cost.  Also, they have competition from Spotify which just launched in the US in July, and Apple's iTunes Genius.  Who wants to go against Apple these days?  Besides, if they sold now they would have to secure a large premium to the current stock price...I would guess at least $20-25/share to clear the $16 IPO offering to calm an investor outrage and a heavy class action lawsuit against the company for coming public sell out below the IPO price.  Buy waiting another year investors would still be pissed, but they could blame the competition and market conditions and shareholders could happy just to get out with $12-15/share.  This is one I'm going to look at shorting today while it's around $10.75, and looking at this chart, you can't tell me a huge rally is coming up soon.  Even with the best conditions, $14 is going to be tough to break.




In other news, Netflix is planning to separate DVD and streaming businesses into different units.  The new DVD business will be called "Qwikster" and if you have both services, you will be billed separately.  As the stock as been hammered, I think this is another dumb idea.  Netflix is a well known, established brand, now confuse the people that haven't adopted either yet and give it a new name?  And your basically telling investors that the mail service is garbage...so why buy into that area?  But more importantly, why not call the new division"NetflixMail", "NetflixDVD" or "Netflix-"whatever...keep the name for recognition and help both your brands at the same time.  On top of that, apparently the Qwikster name is already taken on twitter, so any social media types will go check out this guy, who's seems a little more into smoking pot then running a DVD mailing service.   Talk about a company F'ing up as much as it can.

Few more good reads to take a look at, while I get into buying/shorting mode for the afternoon.

Are you training yourself to be unproductive?
How to be the smartest person on the planet
The human system: What do you fear?

Friday, September 16, 2011

Most/Least Educated Cities in America

Reuters: Madison, WI is #1...Miami #100


And that doesn't factor in the greatness of the Wisconsin Badger football team!  Go Bucky!!!

Market-wise...it's been a tough week following the market.  Lots of things going on and tomorrow won't be much different with final prep of the course in the morning and hosting the races in the afternoon.  All I know is the market is showing great strength heading into options expiration tomorrow and is moving towards that all important 50 day MA.  Some chinks in the armor from what I saw today.  Great up movement, but quite a few stocks I follow were in the red today that typically participate in moves like today.  Solar stocks were off, and the momentum stock of the summer were mixed.  Likely didn't help that NFLX dropped 19% after announcing subscribers were down after their ill-advised price hike.  I understand long term this could be a great move for the company, but at the same time, its a business in it's infancy and was growing nicely....get people to keep signing up, keep them hooked, and raise the price a $1/year and their will be little backlash.  I mean this could turn out to be one of those infamous turning points of the company...it sure has with the stock:



With options expiration tomorrow and my work on the course, i likely won't touch the market...if see it much at all.  Although the last few days have been tough with my largely short bias, I do have BWLD and my long term positons doing well....and frankly, don't expect this party to last much longer...at least without some short term pullback.  Add in RIMM getting slammed after hours and it could weigh on the tech sector, but I feel like that will be an isolated case since RIMM is no longer considered a big player and just shows how Apple and other competitors are beating it up.  I'm looking for a choppy day tomorrow, and as always, hoping that my shorts are the one's chopping down, and my longs on the way up.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Wednesday, Sept. 14th

After looking through charts and the market today in earnest for the first time since last Thursday, I can say right now I'm not sure what to do.  I still have a bearish bias and positions that reflect that, but the market is looking good.  Today's rally throughout the day looks strong and could signal another 5-10% move to the upside before a break in the action.  But I just don't trust this market on the upside.  I feel like a crushing 2-4 days on the downside could happen at any time now.

It's very odd following the market right now...since I have my trading account short, but all my retirement an long term accounts on a long basis.  So as much as the up days are good for my overall account, it's painful for my short term trading.  So, we'll see how things close today and go from there!

Apple in Bullish Pennant Fight -- The move back to $400 looks to be on
3 Keys of Small Success Lead to Big Success

Mark Cuban Blog & NCAA

You may love or dislike the guy, but Mark Cuban is no doubt a great businessman and knows how to get what he wants out of life.  He may look like a fool at times on the sidelines of the Mavericks games, but I'd rather have an owner all over the action than one sitting in a private box a few games a year just checking over his investment.  He's been posting to his blog much more recently and a few have stuck out.  With all the talk of the college conference shifting and developing into super conferences, it could spell trouble to the NCAA as a whole.

What should Big 12 schools do?

The scene is shifting, and over time the NCAA Division 1 landscape is going to change from what we see today.  There are rumblings out there about separating the Division into a BCS division with their own championships, with all the mid-major schools and non-BCS universities with their own championships.  As a coach at a mid-major program, I think going that route is bad for the NCAA.  While more money will pour in to the BCS school division, making it practically a semi-pro division, the other schools will be dropped into the dark and lose exposure similar to a D2 or D3 school.  Leading to less revenue to schools and more power to the top level division.  What I dislike about it the most about this idea is the opportunities that will be lost by mid-level D1 schools to compete against the "big dogs" at the NCAA championships.  Not only will it dilute the meaning of being an NCAA All-American at the smaller schools, but it will mean less competition for the top division also, demeaning that accomplishment for those athletes as well.  Besides, many of the top athletes in the country in non-revenue sports come from schools that are not BCS schools may.  So again, each division would actually be weaker and make the championships less competitive.  I realize that the money is in the big time sports, but I think some of the true appeal of the college game will wear off the more it turns into a semi-professional league

Back to Cuban, he re-posted in August one of his posts from a few years back that is a great read: How to get Rich.that I think is good for everyone to read.  The only exception I make is his post to get rid of credit cards.  I use my credit cards for everything I can and rarely use cash.  I never carry a balance and don't treat it like free money....but I do get cash back on every purchase from 1-5%, and it adds up big time and I typically use my points as credit on later statements.  They key is to view everything you purchase as cash spent...and can you afford it NOW.  If you can't, you don't buy it, it's that simple.

Monday, September 12, 2011

Quick Update

Not intentional on the lack of posting.  Gone all weekend for meet and headed over to Madison for the Ironman and other festivities.  Busy week ahead coming back today, 6am practice, marking the course for the home meet, and afternoon practice.

Didn't pay too much attention to the market today as it was pretty boring.  OPEN hit a new low intraday which was great to see.

Also of note, Pandora mentioned in a previous post hit a new post IPO low today on shrinking listeners and closed at $9.87 today:



There's really not much I see that I like long or short right now since I'm going to be away from my computer tomorrow most likely.  Although if LNKD gets back over 84 I'm going to check all my brokers to see if I can find some shares to short.  What a stupid stock.  I gotta look into some options plays to get in on the action when this things starts to melt down.  Hope to have something more insightful later tomorrow, but for now, I'm happy with my short bias.

Thursday, September 8, 2011

New Wall Street-ish Movie Out This Fall: Margin Call

Check out the trailer for the new movie starring Kevin Spacey depicting the events that lead to the 2008 market crash.  Coming to theaters Oct. 21st.



Not sure how I feel about this one.  If your a financial geek you might get into it, but it looks kinda boring.  I'll wait for it to come out on DVD....which shouldn't take too long.

Bear Flag, FAZ & IMAX trades

Good posting about the current bear flag formation of the markets...except for the hideous bear flags on the webpage.  I guess bears = suck...so its a good correlation of the market going down.

I like the movement in FAZ but got pulled away this morning when it was lower.  Currently have a order in to add to my position...

...update....just picked up more at 57.90.  I chased a little higher as I was trying to get cute and run it down to 57.60, but didn't quite make it.   At least I got it though....missed out on MGM as it's down 5% since I posted about it earlier.  Also closed out my IMAX position earlier today at 18.27 for a small gain (.45/share).  Was never really comfortable in that position so it feels good to close that out without any damage.

Packers Season Opener! MCD, MGM, FAZ...and OPEN tanks!

I feel like I should be playing this market more...the swings are beautiful if you're a swing trader..as long as your on the right side.   The only real problem I have buying right now is the solid companies have seemed to rebound nicely and are not at great discounts.  With the long term view of problems with our economy, even for short term trades I don't want to buy into average companies since those will get slammed if (when) bad news surfaces.  And look....Groupon IPO cancelled (Forbes).

From an post i did last Thursday, MCD managed to drop down into my 87-88 buy range on Tuesday hitting 87.42.  I missed that play while working and it rebounded...but I think we'll get another chance to buy under 88 before any real strong move up.  (currently 89.77)



Short idea:  MGM.  I like casino plays, but this is the weakest of the bunch swimming in debt.  I think this bounces around the 9.70-11 area for quite a while.  (currently $11.08 at posting)



And I really like FAZ here ($55.86).  It's a big mover and you could lost 5pts really fast, but financials just don't have it...at least until there's some clarity around Bank of America (and the excitement around the Buffet investment is wearing off).  If you don't time it perfectly, you're going to get another chance to make money or at least get out even.

  
FAZ:  $55.86 at time of posting

...and just from the wire while writing this that's music to my ears....Google is buying Zagat!...and is crushing OpenTable.  While I'm not sold on the restaurant reservation space, I own Google, so I'll have exposure if it is a valuable business, but on the news OPEN is down 9%, which is great news because I was getting a little annoyed how strong it was lately.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Mid-day update and MON

The selloff this morning has been slowly been chipped away and I'm seeing quite a few stock heading into the green this afternoon (and non other than my "wish-i-bought" nemesis TNH hitting a new all time high over $187. Oil stock are coming back and Gold dropped into the red mid-day.

One stock jumping out as a buy to me today is Monsanto (MON).  Still down 3% even as POT and TNH are green, i like these divergences within groups.  The concern surrounding the stock is that some of it's engineered corn crops are not resisting the root worms they are designed too, and crops are being lost.   While this is a concern, they really can't determine the cause for this until they conclude analysis of the bugs into next year.  So, look for a relief bounce soon...I wouldn't stay for a long time, but could be good for a quick 5 points (current price $63.90).

The (short) week Ahead - August 6th

Short 4 day trading week is under way.  I totally missed the action Friday heading out for our meet, but what I saw when I got back was good.  My short performed well, and my recent long buy IMAX just fell less than a 1%.  And it's nice to see my longer buys were down less than the 2.5%  the market drop.

The bigger percentage drops of the IPO/hot stocks that I follow paint a sign that the market looks like trouble is ahead for at least the short term.  And this time of year is seasonally a weak period until the second half of October..so until Bernanke announces some stimulus deal, I think the downside is much more likely than upside.

Read the week ahead Trading Radar 

If the markets are starting to fall off....look for oil to sell off hard with the markets again.  I think I'm going to pull out of my NOV long term stock this week as I feel I could get back in a better price in the next few weeks.  The OIH looks week and sub 120 appears to be in it's future.


***At 127.70 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

On the long side, Gold seems the way to go, after a gap up and closing a 183 on Friday....a move towards 187 and possibly 190 looks pretty favorable and a pullback to 180 closing the gap would be a good buying point:


***At 183.24 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

I also offer up one of my favorite defensive plays..without being a short...the LQD.  Investment Grade Bond Fund with a 4.5% dividend and doing great during the equity sell-offs.  Currently at $112.69.


***At 112.69 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

Long day and long run at practice today around the trails.  Scary to think that a windy 70 degree day feels chilly.  It may be nice for working out, but I still love the heat.  It's late and I plan to sleep through the first half hour or so of the market tomorrow.  I know most traders get up hours before the market and do readings/charting/whatever, but that first half hour is a terrible time to trade unless you're a daytrader and try to fade the opening moves.  I have no interest in that and I like to check things when the initial panic/euphoria has subsided.  They say all the amateurs trade the open, while the professionals trade the close.  I'll try my luck in these markets by siding with the professionals.  Happy trading!

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Heading into Labor Day Weekend

Tomorrow won't give me much of a chance to follow the market.  Workout in the morning with one of our women not competing, then jumping on the bus and heading to Iowa for a meet that night.  So, i'll likely just be a partial observer when I get a chance.  And likely the only move I would make is to sell my IMAX position if the market is looking ugly.   FSL is still worthless company so I'm not worried about that one at all...same with OPEN.  Tomorrow's real test with the jobs report will be the S&P holding above 1200, otherwise it's a safe bet it will close that gap to 1180 where it should find some support.

Just one good link to share:  Winning while your losing

Power outage and McDonalds, Goldmans Sachs, First Solar

Late last night the power cord of my laptop went out...and felt totally hopeless as my battery died out.  The timing couldn't be worse with the Badgers playing there home opener tonight (and since I don't waste money on cable, I was going to watch on ESPN3).  Also with our team traveling to our first meet tomorrow, and the labor day weekend, it was a bad time to have to wait for something to get shipped (because I refuse to pay $80 for a adapter that you can buy shipped for $10 online).  That may seem cheap when you think about throwing thousands of dollars around for stock trades, but you don't become wealthy wasting your money on stupid crap!

Getting back up to speed on McDonalds, that has nicely moved up to touch all time highs over the past week, I'm looking at my enter strategy.  The stock is holding that 90 area trying to figure out where to go.  I think if it breaks below 89.50, it could chop around and move down at least to the 87-88 range before making another attempt.  If it can clear the 91.5-92, I think the move towards 100 will be on.  So, if it clears 91.5, I'll look to start a position for my long term holdings, maybe a 1/3 or 1/2 of the position that I want then if it goes up another buck or two I'll add the rest.  If it drops under 89, I'll wait a bit longer to see if it will drop to 85-86 area and enter with a 1/2 position or so.


On the other note....FSL and IMAX continue to piss me off, and I'm close to closing out IMAX.  OPEN is still doing beautifully down to 57.80 and within range of it's 52-week low of 53.44.  I think we're going to get there, and that's when the real magic will happen.  

Looking ahead to tomorrow.  As Goldman Sachs seems to be pissing everyone off lately and no longer are the money making gold standard of Wall Street, they also cut it's non-farm payroll expectations for tomorrow in half...so that can't help the bull case.

One last stock to throw out before I get back into things.  Watch FSLR.  It fell below 100 yesterday and is down a few more percent today.  If it can't hold up today or tomorrow and stay above 97, this thing has a drop to 90-91 written all over it.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Shut the door on OPEN!

Beautiful.  Next support at $59!



Looks like the momentum chasers are getting spooked.  Traders getting out of TNH.  Wow, like no one expects the market to go down...when it does, traders freak!




Last Day of August & LNKD

Good start to the day today.  Employment payroll numbers were ok (+91K vs. expectations of +100K), and we have a nice rally continuing today.  What makes it better is all my longs are up (not like IMAX yesterday) and my shorts are either down or just fractionally up (BID, OPEN, FSL).  That's the perfect storm I like to see....ready for any downward move, but making money with everyone on the upside.

A few thoughts today.  I still like the FAZ trade going forward.  Financials are going to suck again sometime....otherwise there wouldn't still be strong consideration of more action by the the Fed of a QE3.  Also, excitement of Buffet's investment of BAC is still lingering...once that wears off and then investors start getting hurt with the price dropping it will get ugly again.  One of the contributers at SlopeofHope brought up the topic of other Buffet buys that have been bad for the common stock investor (I'm too lazy to find the link from last week).  But basically, he bought in and "rescued" GE and GS a few years back and made huge money on the deal...largely from the sweet deal that includes his preferred dividends of 10%.  But anyone holding the common stock is in the red right now (and Buffet's own calls in GS common stock are just barely in the green above his $115 exercise price).  So he might have bailed out the companies, but it hasn't been a windfall for investors.  So no, you can't invest like Warren Buffet.

Other than that, we have a rally going today and historically the last day of August and leading into the Labor day weekend is positive.  But now that everyone is getting comfortable with stock market going up....i just when it seems to do what you don't expect it to do.

I've been up since 5:30am for morning practice.  Instead of just an easy run, one of the athletes needed to get the afternoon workout done since they have class during regular practice time, so already 10miles in the bank with a workout, and get to come back and do it again in 6 hours.  In the meantime, I'm going to check to see if any of my brokers will allow me to short LNKD now.  I think this stock is a joke, and next time this thing enters the 90's, i'm shorting what I can (currently 86.55).


*note:  Chart updates automatically, so price may change from posting.**

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

End of tuesday thoughts

A day of frustration.  I have long and shorts, so on a day like today you'd think the action wouldn't bother me too much.  Well, it did.  Not only did all my shorts happen to go up ( FAZ did register a gain in my favor), the long I entered managed to go down.  Yeah, one of those days.  FSL just pissed me off because it's been dead boring for a few days, then today in the last hour of trading it rallies 6% based on.....??  Chart below.  I'm still sticking to my guns.  If the market keeps this upswing, I'll have to cover soon, but any weakness and this thing is going to get shattered.   Practice at 6am tomorrow, so keeping it short.

MarketWatch:  Technical indicators are favoring the recovery.
Bespoke:  What the market tends to do the last two days of each month
FoxNews:  Here's where your tax money is going on "green" programs!


Chop day & ARCO

The action today is pretty expected after a couple rally days with some sideways action.  The small selloff in the morning combined with the evening out of the indices gives no further indication where this market is going.  Yesterday I did follow through and sell short some FSL at a price of 11.15.  It looks brutal on the long term chart and there seemed to be a total lack of interest in the stock (at least compared to other companies) during the last week.  The IMAX buy was a bit of protection in the face of a rallying market.

With McDonalds showing growth and the stock at an all-time high, another stock to take a serious look at is Arcos Dorados (ARCO).  MCD's sold off it's 1,750 restaurants in South America a few years back to private investors with a 20 year franchise agreement.  It has the largest share of the Latin America fast foot market with over a 12% market share and franchises in 19 countries.  It went public earlier this year and may be a good way to get foreign exposure with a dominant brand that's growing quickly.  



:note:  *current price of 27.40.  Chart automatically updates to price may be different than when posted.***

Monday, August 29, 2011

Buy IMAX and Short Idea - FSL

I will be shorting FSL today.  I'm just waiting to see if the market takes off here in the last hour of trading (we should see some movement soon), otherwise I'm getting in before tomorrow.  FSL has not moved much in the surge of the market of the last week....so I'm taking that weakness as a sign to go short.

Just bought into IMAX at 17.80.

Mid-day move checkup - MCD, NOV, IMAX, TNH

The move up today has bumped the S&P at the top end of it's symmetrical wedge traders have been looking out for.  Things are looking bullish especially if the market can break through to the upside.  The market hit my 1205 target that I posted yesterday and has stalled out from there.  If it can't break through and it sells off into the close, the wedge will just be getting tighter and the waiting game for the breakout will continue.   It's hovering at 1204 right now...where will it go.....

In light of the move up, i'm staying stubborn with my short positions but not looking to add more, and I'm looking to add some long positions to ride any further move up.  Still not interested in Gold until it breaks under that 170 area.  Long idea's are IMAX, NOV, MCD.

McDonalds I talked about last week...and it's at the breakout point now at $90.40.


*note: charts update automatically so price may be different than at posting*

A stock that has been killing me is TNH (now @ $187).  I started watching this thing hard back in June at the 120 stage and looking to buy on a drop to 105-110 for my long term account.   I think it reached 114 or so, then it just kept going up, up and up!  Fortunately I bought some POT so I have exposure to this area, but this is up 50% while POT is only up 14% since i got in.  Looking at the chart I'd say short the thing but stocks like this tend to go up much longer than you think they can.


*note: charts update automatically so price may be different than at posting*

Sunday, August 28, 2011

The Week Ahead, Aug. 29th

With Wall Street expected to opened as planned tomorrow, the tone for the week will be set early.  A rally off Friday's move would paint a very bullish sign with S&P 1205 as a key level of resistance to break though, with 1122 area as the key support level not to break.  I feel like this will be a choppy week where we'll challenge one of those levels....which level depends on how the market reacts tomorrow.  Volume could be light if everyone isn't back to trading, which could lead to further volatility 

I'm anticipating to be more active this week as things have calmed down and i can spend a little more time following the market during the day.  Though Friday we travel for our first meet of the year, so it's a short week to get some good trades done.

A few Links:
Minyanville:  How Hurricane could affect insurance stocks
USA Today:  Food Stamp us on the Rise
LA Times:  Are we too Bearish?
Barrons:  Buffet has no fear, why should you?
BusinessWeek:  Buffet's deal capitalizes on bank weakness
Barrons:  No Steve Jobs, Apple will still go on
USA Today:  Apple IPhone 5, New IPad to come out in October
TheOnion:  New Apple CEO Tim Cook:  I'm Thinking Printers!
24/7Wall Street:  Short bets on the rise
24/7 Wall Street:  Top Analyst Calls for the week
24/7 Wall Street:  Company Winners and Losers of Hurricane
BusinessWeek:  Gambling in Macau is Hot!
Bloomberg:  Corn harvest down
Boomberg:  Groupon CEO--Company never been stronger
Pantagraph:  Escalade Most targeted car by thieves
Wisconsin State Journal:  The Bucky Wagon to return!

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Plush Trader: List of Great Trading/Business/Money Movies

Plush Trader: List of Great Trading/Business/Money Movies: Trading, Sales, Business...or any money related movie Let me know if I've missed any good ones! Trading Places Sporting billionaire brot...

Friday, August 26, 2011

Apple comeback

And what did you learn from AAPL?  Even though Steve Jobs has been the driving force behind the company, his resigning is not going to kill the company overnight.  So anyone who sold Wednesday after hours during it's $20-25 drop or early the next day, have learned the lesson the hard way.

Chart forApple Inc. (AAPL)

Links and FSLR

At mid-day, this market has gotten stronger and I think will get stronger as the day goes on.  Many stocks on my watch list are up 3-4% today with just a few barely in the red.  If we get a reversal in the last hour today, things will get ugly.

Economy weaker than expected last quarter...then came the market sell off.
Bernanke say economy needs help, but offers no QE3...yet.  
3 Steps to Short selling...and talks about one of my stocks...OPEN
Bloomberg: Buffett BAC deal gains $1.3 after first day!
Reuters:  BA's Dreamliner finally pushing off

I profiled FSLR earlier this week, and the stock has hit $100, becoming positive for the week and butting up against it's 20MA.  The 50 day is about 15% higher at 115 and the area of resistance looks to be around 108.  So this is a crucial area to hold or rally into the close.




IPO/Hot Stock Check-ups

One area I've been fascinated with the last couple months is following the new batch of IPO's and hot stock, especially the social network and online companies.  I've traded them successfully on the long side (SODA) and the short side (FSL, OPEN--currently have OPEN short).  I tried to short LinkedIn about a dozen times in July and early august, but my brokers didn't have shares available to do it ( i should have done an options strategy).  P and Z are also favorites to watch and waiting for the right move.  I was starting to drink the SODA juice and believe it could be a long term thing, but after the quick run-up  in July, I sold out and was fortunately out when the carnage started.

The thing about these stocks is most of them are going to be pretty worthless down to road or just hit a road block in growth.

-OPEN has already pissed off many customers who have dropped their expensive service, and it's just a matter of time before others come in and compete with them with a cheaper price model.


-LNKD doesn't have the traction of a facebook, and I feel like the site is still pretty clumsy.  And where is the big revenue going to come from???


-Pandora is losing money and any attempt they make to really make money will create an opportunity for another startup to take the free radio users away.


-Zillow I think has the best chance of all of them, but they will act more like car companies...make a boat load of money in good economic times, have terrible results during recessionary periods.


-FSL.  To be honest, I don't even know any fundamental reason why I took a bearish view on this stock in the first place.  When it was 15 I didn't like it, at 20 was crazy.  But looking at the chart and seeing an IPO sink within days/weeks of coming public should tell you that insiders can't cashout fast enough.  If they are dumping as soon as they can, why would anyone want to buy?




-SODA:  I think the magic is gone.  They'll need some outstanding growth numbers here in the U.S to get people to jump the bandwagon again.  When you get hurt that big and that fast, traders are not going to come flooding back in.  (Think SLV...it's coming back, but still 25% below it's high).  The idea that people are going to pay $100+ for the machine and buy the syrup is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.  Maybe it does win taste tests...but really, people are lazy and like to pay for convenience...like bottled water!



Thursday, August 25, 2011

MCD Update

Just from a post last week.  MCD made it's first stab to break away and made a new intraday high of 90.45 this morning and been pushed back.  I don't see this stock going much further than 88 (with normal market conditions) before making another test.  

*note: chart updates itself, so prices may change from posting*

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Two safety picks

Dividend paying stocks are the best of both world these days.  A dividend payment better than bonds or interest bearing accounts, and the upside of stock movement.  Here's two good stocks to play in that sector.  Sysco and Phillip Morris.

Sysco (SYY - $27.15):  Though hit recently for rising food costs and discounts given to customers hurt it's numbers this past quarter, and the chart isn't especially appealing, it's a stodgy company that will remain strong during a weak economy.  It used the last recession to pick up market share by acquiring rivals and still increasing it's dividend which currently yields 3.8%

  
*note: these charts continuously update, so prices may change from the time it was posted**

Phillip Morris (PM - $70.00) is a favorite of mine that I've held in retirement account along with MO for the past 5 years.  It yields 3.7% and is up 42% in the last year.  I favor PM over MO which yields 5.9% because of the prospects of the international business growing at a much faster rate than the domestic business of MO.


*note: these charts continuously update, so prices may change from the time it was posted**

Aug. 24th

The key today will be holding the gains from yesterday.  A one day rally will keep more money on the sidelines and away from a real rally.   Despite the market weakness, financials are doing very well as Bank of America is up 9% from comments by analysts that the stock has been oversold.  I'm not buying that.  As much as the stock has fallen this month, the company is still not worth buying.

A few to read:
Associated Press:  Moody's downgrades Japan From Aa2 to Aa3.  Love these ratings systems.
TheStreet: Hurricane Irene may hit the insurance industry.  Start betting on the Hurricane effects
Reuters:  Sprint to start selling IPhone 5 in mid-October
Yahoo: Adidas unveils barefoot shoes I'm not totally against this concept, but if you do go into this type of shoe, you need to start training over from scratch and give yourself at least 6 months to build up your normal training levels.  Pretty nice you can pay $90 to run essentially barefoot!
Reuters:  Google agree's to pay $500mil for playing Canadian drug ads in U.S.

Gold is definitely taking a breather...with GLD down to 173 after getting over 184 on Monday.  I think it's a good hedge against market uncertainty, but I'd wait until its back to 160 before thinking about buying in again.



Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Interview & The Day Ahead - Tuesday, Aug. 23

Late posting tonight after a lengthy couple phone interviews tonight after practice.  They went very well and it may cause a tough decision down the road.  The pay isn't great and it's at a Division 3 school, but i would have much more responsibility and would be in a much better location...a major city where I would know a lot more people and not to far where I went to college.  So, I got that going for me.....

Regarding the market action.  The markets attempted to rally at the open, then fell apart, then attempted again, then fell apart again in the closing minutes.  GS lead the charge lower in the closing minutes down 5 bucks and close on big volume to it's lowest point in two and a half years.   This points to a weak open on Tuesday, but maybe a good chance to buy the dip and play for an intraday reversal.

A few more to read:
Reuters:  The Day Ahead
USA Today:  Stunted Corn Crop could Raise Prices
Bespoke:  Earnings Season Big Movers (some real big bombs)
Business Insider:  Insider Selling at Groupon (not the best sign when there getting out BEFORE the IPO).
Business Insider:  10 Huge Questions about the Groupon IPO filing
TheStreet:  Apple the favorite among hedge funds
Morningstar High Conviction Buys
TraderPlanet:  The 2% Rule  
StockTwits:  The Reformed Broker:  Why Shorting can be tough  (but stocks seem to fall a lot easier than they rise!).
Yahoo:  Toyota introduces new Camry
Bloomberg:  Facebook seeks more aquisitions
Bloomberg:  Boeing backed up with inventory of Dreamliners

Monday, August 22, 2011

Another Trade Idea: McDonalds

McDonalds has been impressive this month, still eaking out a gain for the month and closing in an all time high.  It pays a dividend of 2.4% and even if the economy tanks, people will be going out for cheap calories.  If this stock shows any weakness (and it barely has) and dips to the 84-85 range, it would be a good long term pickup with some margin of safety.  And if it can bust to a new high and hit $90/share, I would be even more compelled to get in.



**note:  this chart updates each day, so price will be different than the day it is posted**

Trade Radar - FSLR

Suntech Power reported a wider than expected loss this morning (Reuters article) but is up in trading today with hope that spending in the sector will rebound in the next quarter an beyond.  This brings me to a stock I've traded before and is regarded as the best of breed of the bunch, FSLR.  Sitting a $88, it's had a horrendous half year, down over 49% from it's 52wk high (less than 6months ago), and down 29% for the month.  The stock is in an obvious downtrend:

 
**note:  this chart updates each day, so price will be different than the day it is posted**

I'm closely watching it because if/when we rally, this thing will take off.  It's profitable and is anticipated to grow about 20% over the next several years.  While the "trend is your friend" and this stock is obviously getting hit, it's now at the bottom of it's channel and could easily move to the 100-105 range without much resistance.    The stock hasn't touched this low since late 2008, so this is the best valuation this stock has seen in years.

The Week of Aug. 22

Friday was a good day...I was busy with the team other activties, and really didn't get a chance to look at the market until after the close.  Fortunately, my positioning made it another profitable day.  This week I'm looking to become more active.  After the last two weeks of rollercoaster moves, where do we stand?  Nobody knows, and if they tell you they do, they're just guessing too.

On the Bulls side, I'm looking for people to buy into some stocks after depressed prices offer some nice entry points.  Also, the shorts could be looking to lock in some profits soon and cover any short positions they may have.  The weakening market will also give more hope to bulls that Bernanke will initiate more stimulus activities to the economy to prop it up.  Good for us in the short term, but still just putting a band aid on bullet wound.

The Bears will tell you the end is coming and the drop to Dow 7000 is on its way.  I find this totally hard to believe, but anything is possible.  The Elliot Wave theorists point that we are either in a "Wave 4" bounce, or the beginning of a Wave 5 retest of the lows, with grim days ahead.  So.....wait and see, and then we'll tell you what wave we're in after the fact.  Real technical.

I'm anticipating an attempt to rally on Monday on some bottom fishing. Or, we'll sell off.  Again, I don't know, you just have to be ready to play what presents itself.

I'm catching up on my reading, so here's a few from the last couple weeks, with more coming soon.
 
Minyanville:  The week ahead
Zerohedge:  12 Points confirming the double dip recession is ahead
Marketwatch:  No double dip, but profits are going down
StockTwits:  The Insider Buying Lie
Optionetics:  This is Why We Trade
Attitrade:  Keep yourself accountable to someone
Investors:  QE gives US as Boost, and Hangover
Yahoo:  Goldman Sachs New Money Making Machine---Warehouses!
MarketWatch: Google going to 1,500
TraderPlanet:  10 Key Questions Measuring your Trading Progress
StockTwits.  Goldman COO gives advice to new Grads
Bloomburg:  Expect small growth rebound, no recession
CNBC:  Fed shooting blanks?

I'll have more later I read through more.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Quick Notes

Wasn't close to a computer for the rest of the day after my last post.  Meetings and getting ready for the second practice of the day.  SODA finished well amid the turmoil and may have found a bottom, with any rebound this could be a nice gainer from here.  But things are looking shaky.  Although we didn't establish a new low, a significant drop like this so soon after the last rounds of selling and short rebound period, all bets are off right now.  I'm keeping my short status and with options expiration tomorrow and the weekend coming up, I definately won't be doing any buying unless an extremely favorable set-up becomes apparent.   Although today was an ugly one for the retirement accounts, I was really happy with my net 6.4% gain in my trading account today.  Lets hope for a stable day tomorrow...except for BID and OPEN (and the financials can tank to keep the FAZ trading going).

Reuters:  The day ahead

SODA Follow up

Today's action has been pretty for my trading account that's largely short and showing about a 6% gain today.  Just to quickly follow up with SODA.  Today's strength is impressive with today's selloff, and I think would make for a good lower-risk buy.  But this could get really ugly at the end of the day, so I'm going to wait until the end of the day and see how things play out, because on a decent market day this is an easy few points. 

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

1st Day of Practice!

The first day of my real profession was today (i don't use job, since I don't consider what I do work).  I am an assistant coach for a NCAA Division 1 University, and it's the best time of year....when everyone's back and before classes get into full swing.  So because of this, posting might be a little sporatic as we start practice at 6:30am the next few days with meetings and afternoon practices thrown in there...so I'm going to try and get a piece of the market action when I can.  But, I'll add a couple things:

1.  Pretty much nothing day today...which is expected.  The lineup tomorrow is loaded:
CPI, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed Survey all come out pre-market.  Lots of data to digest.

2.  Loved the action on OPEN today...down 5.5% on a flat market day.  awesome.  (and it always feels good when you sell a stock, and it does nothing the next day as is the case with NKE)

3.  Wow...how SODA has fallen.  Just a few weeks back, Cramer was all over this stock as the next great company...then poor guidance...and all of a sudden it's in the tank:


**note:  these charts update daily so prices may be different that day of post.**

Where it bottoms from here is a tough call.   Down 51% off it's high, $30 looks like it would be a last line of defense support area.  However, today's action could mark the turnaround point as a hammer was formed on 3x average volume today.  Although you'd like to see more volume to really see a shakeout off the weak holders, this looks like an attractive entry point, but I would have a tight stop in place just in case the carnage isn't over.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Sold NKE

Just a quick update.  I sold out of my Nike position just seconds before the close at 83.25.  Although this was a good day where the market sold off at mid day and came back, there was weakness at the close I didn't like to see.  I think today's small drop could pave the way for some gains tomorrow, but I wanted to get out with a profit and load some ammo if this drops back down under 80.  So in my trading accounts I have a short bias, with FAZ, OPEN, and BID on the downside, and BWLD for the upside (with GRMN and CVD as long positions, but have held for the longer term).

Thursday is going to be a key day this week before options expiration.  With reports of CPI, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Leading Indicators, there's going to be a glut of info to digest.

FAZ Chart

Tim Knight at SlopeofHope profiled one of the bearish positions today that I'm holding right now.  Basically I'm just plugging n a different chart of the stock here.  His chart just goes back to July 1st and shows the break of a double top on huge volume followed by the recent pullback on lighter trade.  On the 1 year chart things look just as good.  This is looking poised to start the move back up and that's bad news for financials.

Etrade Baby Loses Everything!!!

Great Spoof on E-trade commercial baby from college humor after last weeks movements:


http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6477219/remix-e-trade-baby-loses-everything

Monday, August 15, 2011

Week of August 15th

Just a few links to lead into the trading week.  I'm looking for things to be semi-volitile again and looking to unload a couple long stocks on any strength.  I think there are some great companies to hold going forward, but I think there are going to be better buying opportunities ahead.

Minyanville:  The Trading Week Ahead 
ChrisPurruna:  Identifying a Change in Trend
Forbes:  All the Cool Kids are Trading at Night
Stocktwits:  All Star Charts Blog:  Retracement Levels
Buydon'thold:  Sell Signal still in Effect
Old School Value Blog:  7 Way to get Mind Blowing Returns
Barrons:  What CSCO can do to get its groove back

Forbes:  Most Rabid Football Fans - Packers #1!  Not only that, Nice to see the Bears all the way down at #29.  And the Jets, led by their loudmouth moron of a coach Rex Ryan, are #32!  

Friday, August 12, 2011

This Weeks Action

This was a tough week to trade, you could be extremly right, or extremely wrong depending on the day of the week.  It's hard to make any recommendations when things are this crazy, because if you're wrong, you could get hit by a title wave.  So it's best to trade tight, watch stops, and not make any big moves until things level out. Having the weekend finally arrive should allow the market to cool off and let everyone access the situation more rationally...however sometimes that's when Monday can provide an equally substantial move.  And with options expiration next week, it's not going to settle that much.

A Few Reads:
Forbes:  Stocks Withstand Bleak View from US Consumers
3 Popular stocks unlikely to bounce back
Whether you made money or lost money this week, stay hungry
Seeking Alpha:  Choosing between Gold and Stocks
Seeking Alpha:  Ban on Short Selling a Bad Sign (Eurozone countries implemented this)
MarketBeat: Short selling Bans just don't work

The big tell next week will be how flagship stocks such as Amazon hold up and perform.  AMAN fell off it's high and broke below it's 50-day moving average, but held it's up channel trendline (while GOOG and APPL held 50 MA).  If it can cut back through the 50 day and rally, the uptrend should continue.  If it fails to break through the 50day, the channel trend will be in jeopardy, it will be a good signal of trouble.  I think Amazon has positioned itself great for the future, but nobody's totally immune to a market sell-off---especially after a lot of terrible companies rallied big with the (irrational) rally of the market the past couple years.