Buy HOG 38 puts

Long break from the blog and meaning to make some posts again.  Trade today is buying HOG Aug 38 puts ahead of tomorrow's earnings report.   Citigroup had a report out last week expecting sluggish sales and upside on the stock is very limited.  Have seen a lot of interest on the August 38 puts the last few days, so looks like traders are taking hedges that earnings will see the stock drop.  Getting into August puts for under .60, and could see an easy double/triple if earnings disappoint.

Prior post update

I added the wrong image type two days ago, so the chart has been auto updating each day (The stock closed at 17.40 on the day of posting)....this one is a jpg and will stay, but added at today's (Friday's) price.  I think in the future I will add one jpg image to show the chart when I make a post, then the auto updating chart in the same post so we can track the movement side-by-side afterwards.  Still learning on how to do all this the best way, but I think this will be a good way to look back and track performance of idea's as they come up.

So far the stock has performed as hoped.

Trade Idea - TSRA

Quiet last week but made some moves to closeout the 2011 trading year.  Sold my short position in BID @ 28.20 (entry at 45.70) for a very nice profit.  Picked up some TZA for insurance on the downside...now my only short plays are TZA and a small FAZ position.

Starting to get back into screening mode.  One screen found a stock I'm pretty interested in:  Tessera Technologies (TSRA).   Holds over $10/share of cash on hand and ~100million free cash flow, insider transactions are up 25% this quarter.  Sales growth has been 25% over the past 5 years.    Looking at the chart it's at a critical point now...a breakdown here could stall the rally but a move to the $17.70 area would give it room to run on the upside.

I'll give my 2011 performance update in the next few days and aim to consistently keep posting new ideas now that the move is complete.  

Unshortable OPEN

Got moved into my new place last weekend, and spend most of the week just trying to get situated around here. I looked at the market a few times, but only have internet access on campus...and since I don't have a internet at my new place yet, my researching time is extremely limited.

I attempted to get back into OPEN on the short side today, but after trying through 3 of my brokerage accounts, I couldn't find any shares to borrow.  So now I feel pretty sad that i bought back my shares a few weeks back.  I guess I'll have to find a new favorite stock that destined to go to 0.  I'm going to keep trying each day though, because this stock is too bad to pass up.

Moving Day!

In the process of moving, so trading has been on the way back burner lately.  Loading up the U-haul and what seems like should take 30min has been about 3 hours! 

Only changes to the portfolio-  Closed short positions in OPEN and MGM last Wednesday.  MGM closed at 9.30 (short at 10.70).  And OPEN closed partially on accident.  I had an existing GTC order still in play from earnings day that never hit, until last week.  Covered at 33.05 (sold at 80.70!). Definitely my best short ever.   Still think the stock is a joke, so I'll be looking to jump back in when it rallies to the 37-40 range.  

Back to packing and getting ready to drive outta town tomorow.  

A few quick looks

A few longs I'm looking at.  #1 is Deckers (DECK).  Good growth stock that has sold off a bid in the last couple days.  Looks good for a quick rebound of 5% or so.

Another stock I've been looking at could be changing it's trend...MTW  It'll be key that it holds it current levels, and a  rally from here could be a good indication that the downtrend is broken.

And look what's back from the dead.  Long considered a great value stock, but the price action never showed it, is finally showing some life.  Maybe it's time to pick up some to stash away.  

Gambling sometimes pays off!

Again, plan on posting more as earnings wind down and i'm getting back into the swing of things now with the market.  Conference Championships were this weekend and it was a great weekend.  The men ran solid and finished where predicted, and with a team loaded with 6 freshman, that's sometimes all you can ask for.  The women pulled out the victory for the first conference title in 22 years!

Anyways, my big short so far this year has been OpenTable (OPEN).  A once darling momentum stock that really, doesn't has a business model that is immune to fierce competition.  I shorted the stock back in the summer at 80.70, and after a brief move to almost 90, it's been in a free-fall since.   It touched under 40 before the October rally took it back to the 51+ area just 5 days ago.  It's deteriorated the last week and was trading at 43 today.

I was going to take the rational, safe, and smart route of cover the short today prior to earnings being released after the bell.  But, I held off after looking at the chart and figuring that at most it would rally $5-6 on a great report.  This is where my gambling and trading mentality collided.  I was taking a 50/50 bet that the stock either rally hard or sell off.  Although good odds, I would never walk up to a roulette table in Vegas and throw down that kind of money on red or black and hope for the best...but that's what I did today.  My only real rational was I was already "up" by 37pts., so I could afford a loss of 5 to let it ride.  But I shouldn't have considered at all where the stock came from, but where it was now---I would never buy a stock going into earnings with the chance to loss that much on one announcement, but my today I broke that rule.

Well after getting home from practice and checking the press release and after hours trades, the stock is down almost 15% after hours (~$6.40).  The feeling was like I hit my number playing craps on got paid.  A great feeling, but really it's not how I should be going about my trades.  But you know what?  Today, it feels great to be a gambler...and maybe I'll just close out the trade tomorrow and buy a iPad with my winnings!

Still here

Still, busy with coaching/recruiting/looking at moving logistics.  Mostly sitting on the sidelines waiting for earnings season to blow through without getting hammered.

NFLX.  Crazy.  That's why you don't make major changes.  Again, I know it was unsustainable, but adding $1-2/month now would have kept most of the subscribers, and they could have slowly bled the price up and they wouldn't be in the mess they are now.

Opened a small short position in MGM yesterday at 10.70 right at the close.  This is the high end of it's short term range and in a longer term down trend.  Should be easy to get out in the 10-10.20 range, and lower if this market turns around.  LVS reports earnings on tomorrow that could make some noise, and MGM reports next week.

Amazon is down sharply today after earnings.  I think this is an interesting case:  The stock is getting hammered, but most of the news out there are defending the company and it's long term outlook because of costs it's incurring now.  Is this a smart time to pick up shares, or stay away because all the analysts are trying to keep it propped up to sell out?

So, like most traders, I'm just waiting for the "EU to be saved" announcedment and subsequent move.  Out of boredom I've played with FSLR today making some pocket change on a couple day trades.  Might have to enter another short here at 47.30...