IPO/Hot Stock Check-ups

One area I've been fascinated with the last couple months is following the new batch of IPO's and hot stock, especially the social network and online companies.  I've traded them successfully on the long side (SODA) and the short side (FSL, OPEN--currently have OPEN short).  I tried to short LinkedIn about a dozen times in July and early august, but my brokers didn't have shares available to do it ( i should have done an options strategy).  P and Z are also favorites to watch and waiting for the right move.  I was starting to drink the SODA juice and believe it could be a long term thing, but after the quick run-up  in July, I sold out and was fortunately out when the carnage started.

The thing about these stocks is most of them are going to be pretty worthless down to road or just hit a road block in growth.

-OPEN has already pissed off many customers who have dropped their expensive service, and it's just a matter of time before others come in and compete with them with a cheaper price model.


-LNKD doesn't have the traction of a facebook, and I feel like the site is still pretty clumsy.  And where is the big revenue going to come from???


-Pandora is losing money and any attempt they make to really make money will create an opportunity for another startup to take the free radio users away.


-Zillow I think has the best chance of all of them, but they will act more like car companies...make a boat load of money in good economic times, have terrible results during recessionary periods.


-FSL.  To be honest, I don't even know any fundamental reason why I took a bearish view on this stock in the first place.  When it was 15 I didn't like it, at 20 was crazy.  But looking at the chart and seeing an IPO sink within days/weeks of coming public should tell you that insiders can't cashout fast enough.  If they are dumping as soon as they can, why would anyone want to buy?




-SODA:  I think the magic is gone.  They'll need some outstanding growth numbers here in the U.S to get people to jump the bandwagon again.  When you get hurt that big and that fast, traders are not going to come flooding back in.  (Think SLV...it's coming back, but still 25% below it's high).  The idea that people are going to pay $100+ for the machine and buy the syrup is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.  Maybe it does win taste tests...but really, people are lazy and like to pay for convenience...like bottled water!