Thursday, September 22, 2011

Post Fed-day Fall Off

Well, today I woke up and saw exactly what I wanted to see with my portfolio....a lot of green, due to all the red on the screen.  BID, OPEN, and FAZ are huge gains for me today, and although I am kicking myself for not getting out of NOV in my long term portfolio yesterday, it could have always turned out differently.  Because the prospects of economic slowdown are going to kill anything energy related, and while it's been a great performer this year, NOV could go down to the 40 range pretty quick as oil drops.  But long term I still like this stock alot along with HAL and SLB

There are some good looking prices out there, but I'm not interested in buying anything today.  I might try a daytrade to pick up some change, but this could get really ugly going into the close and tomorrow as people bail to feel comfortable going into the weekend.

Patience is really being rewarded with OPEN and BID right now.  OPEN chart is just plain ugly (now at 44.27).  With my short initiated at $80.70 in mid-June (and sweating a little as after an initial drop, it rode up to $90), it's only a few points away from a 50% gain.  Not really sure where to exit here...it's breaking the bottom part of it's down trend line, so technically, it could just be getting started...but but it does break $40 in the next few days, I'll definati


FAZ is breaking out, and anther one i was sweating when I increased my position 2 weeks ago, and if it can get above that 73 area, it looks like 80 is well within reach:


For safety, the LQD is still a great pickup for the long term portfolio, 4.5% dividend and moving up with any weakness in stocks:


For the daytrade route, I'm starting to look at TNH again.  This was my missed opportunity as it zoomed from 120 to almost 200, and has fallen off a cliff in the last couple days.  Didn't even see it in the 120's this morning, but has rebounded solidly, and just during this post it's gone from negative to up $4.  Ride this one with caution:


And finally, while the chart looks ugly, BIDU is really getting punished today down a ridiculous 12%.   Though I'd wait until right before the close to make any buys, this would be on the top of the list (right along with NFLX..it's holding up today after the rough week...I could easily see a $10-15 bounce back before any larger move lower is made).


I have to marvel on days like today...where my long term holdings are getting hurt, but my trading account is taking off, so it's a mixed bag of feelings looking at the market.  I never really shorted stocks until this year, and now I'm almost preferring it as opposed to buying.  It seems like when things are bad, you make a lot of money in a hurry...much faster than when it's going up.  So day's like today it's nice to sit back and watch the account values rise when it could be a day of panic.

For more short idea's, I would check out the list of today's top losers and those hitting new all time lows

2 comments:

  1. Update...closed out my NOV position in my long term account to protect against further declines into the close. I still have a number of long positions in that account, but this seemed the most vulnerable to a quick decline and I could re-buy when the dust clears.

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