Friday, August 12, 2011

This Weeks Action

This was a tough week to trade, you could be extremly right, or extremely wrong depending on the day of the week.  It's hard to make any recommendations when things are this crazy, because if you're wrong, you could get hit by a title wave.  So it's best to trade tight, watch stops, and not make any big moves until things level out. Having the weekend finally arrive should allow the market to cool off and let everyone access the situation more rationally...however sometimes that's when Monday can provide an equally substantial move.  And with options expiration next week, it's not going to settle that much.

A Few Reads:
Forbes:  Stocks Withstand Bleak View from US Consumers
3 Popular stocks unlikely to bounce back
Whether you made money or lost money this week, stay hungry
Seeking Alpha:  Choosing between Gold and Stocks
Seeking Alpha:  Ban on Short Selling a Bad Sign (Eurozone countries implemented this)
MarketBeat: Short selling Bans just don't work

The big tell next week will be how flagship stocks such as Amazon hold up and perform.  AMAN fell off it's high and broke below it's 50-day moving average, but held it's up channel trendline (while GOOG and APPL held 50 MA).  If it can cut back through the 50 day and rally, the uptrend should continue.  If it fails to break through the 50day, the channel trend will be in jeopardy, it will be a good signal of trouble.  I think Amazon has positioned itself great for the future, but nobody's totally immune to a market sell-off---especially after a lot of terrible companies rallied big with the (irrational) rally of the market the past couple years.

The Day Ahead: August 12.

After another huge move, tomorrows news will focus on July Retail Sales to get a snapshot of the economy.

Reuters: The day ahead

The reversal today again will give momentum to the bulls to get the market back on track.  With the big selloffs, the big money has been picking up shares cheap.  The key will be holding these gains and rallying forward.  I think this is a good time to stay long, but if the gains persist, it'll be a good opportunity to go short on the market.  It was announced that 8 of 11 expected IPO's have been pulled this week due to market conditions, which is expected.  But you can already see that recent IPO's are starting to lose their appeal.  Though OPEN has rallied the last 2 days from an analyst upgrade, it's still down ~45% from it's peak.  FSL is down 35% in the last 2 weeks.  And SODA, a darling of Jim Cramer, got crushed today down 34% from an earnings that beat, but guidance was weak.  It's down 43% from it's high set a couple weeks back....i hope to many people didn't follow his BUY! BUY! BUY! screaming!

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

The Day Ahead - August 10th

Tomorrow will be a more telling day in the market.  Now that Fed Day is over and everyone has digested the info from the last week, things should start to become slightly more sane.  The market was in an oversold condition heading into the week, and after the drop, hold and rally today, there is much anticipation for a rally heading into the rest of the week to work off the oversold conditions.  The fact that most people are expecting a rally, is what really makes me scared to believe it.

Another story to watch is to see where gold goes from here. It has rallied furiously the last couple days, yet today Silver lagged behind.  GLD was up almost 1% to close over 168 (after hitting an all time high of 173 after the fed announcement) and SLV didn't participate in the rally and was down over 4% when the rally took hold.  Either SLV is going to make a move to catch up, or there's going to be some profit taking in gold.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

The Day ahead --- Aug. 9th. Fed Day

After today's sell off, tomorrow will be in interesting day as the Fed Day Trade, which has generally been positive, takes effect.  On top of that, after today's big selloff, there will be a battle between people "getting out why I can" and the late to the party short sellers, and those looking to pick up stocks on the cheap in anticipation of a snap-back rally.  No matter what the long term outlook or sentiment of the economy is, barring a full blown collapse, there will be a relief really from these oversold conditions.  It's going to be choppy for some time, so it'll be important to be nimble, set stops, and take profits when price targets get hit.  If you're the gambling type, playing the FAZ/FAS, TNA/TZA trades will be more fun that anything you can do in Vegas.

Late post for me tonight, after the market closed I went for a run and decided to do another type of gambling.  First, driving through a severe storm that produced some funnel clouds.....I got some great pictures and had to pull off the road as the wall cloud was passing the HWY just a couple hundred meters ahead.  Then hit the casino.  After a day my accounts were pretty much flat, i feel like I missed out on the real fun...but that's what positioning long and short does...i may have not hit the home run on this sell off because I held onto my NKE and BWLD holdings going into this week, but on the same token, I didn't lose anything either!  I bet a lot of people wish they could say that today!

Full disclosure of current holdings

As I am starting up this blog, I want to give full disclosure of my current holdings in my active trading accounts.

Currently I am long NKE, BWLD, and FAZ (though bearish, as 3x financial bear fund)
I am short OPEN and BID

I own positions in GRMN, CVD, AAPL, GOOG, NOV, BRK.b, PCG, MO, PM, and POT for my longer term portfolio and IRA accounts, along with various ETF's and mutual funds (LQD, mentioned in the prior post, was acquired a few months back at 109).  POT was a recent pick up at $51 a couple weeks ago.  All other positions have been held a year or more.  I am looking at possible sales of GRMN and PCG.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Hedge against Market Weakness

Looking for an ETF that has steady returns during strong stock market, but even better during weakness, check out LQD.  Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund.  After breaking out of the uptrend channel a few weeks back on market weakness, it pulled back on Friday with the market bounce.  Has a dividend of 4.5% on top of a 6% year-to-date gain.   Should continue to show strength even when the overall market does not.

Must Read Trading Books & Great Money-Related Movies

Classic tale of trading of Jesse Livermore - A must read for any trader to understand the ups and downs of trading.

Similar to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.  A great motivator to pursue trading, especially for beginners..

Psychology, chart patterns, risk management, and basically everything you need to know for Swing Trading

Interviews with a wide range of traders of different diciplines.  Each converstion will give you a different perspective and open your mind to new approaches to your own trading

A must read that details how to position your trades to maximize gains while protecting your capital.

 Actual Account of John Malcolm, a securities trader in the 90's who went to Japan and exploited the markets.  From the author that wrote "Bringing down the House" that was made into the movie "21"

 Learn all about value investing

Must have charting book for the Japanese Candlestick Charting Method.  This method provides some better visual representation of the actual price movements of stocks on an intraday/week basis.    
Traders, just like athletes, face tremendous pressure, stress, and expectations that would crush the ordinary, unprepared individual. The Trading Athlete utilizes sport psychology strategies to provide you with the knowledge, confidence, and discipline needed to succeed and profit in the sink-or-swim world of online trading.

The real story of the crash began in bizarre feeder markets where the sun doesn't shine and the SEC doesn't dare, or bother, to tread: the bond and real estate derivative markets where geeks invent impenetrable securities to profit from the misery of lower--and middle--class Americans who can't pay their debts. The smart people who understood what was or might be happening were paralyzed by hope and fear; in any case, they weren't talking. 

The time was the 1980s. The place was Wall Street. The game was called Liar’s Poker.
Michael Lewis was fresh out of Princeton and the London School of Economics when he landed a job at Salomon Brothers, one of Wall Street’s premier investment firms. During the next three years, Lewis rose from callow trainee to bond salesman, raking in millions for the firm and cashing in on a modern-day gold rush.

Trading, Sales, Business...or any money related movies

Sporting billionaire brothers reverse the roles of a wall street commodities broker and a street hustler. Starring: Eddie Murphy Jamie Lee Curtis Dan Aykroyd

Seth Davis (Giovanni Ribisi) is a 19-year-old college dropout who strives for approval from his father (Ron Rifkin), a judge who is horrified that his son operates a 24-hour illicit casino. When an old friend visits the casino with a fellow broker, Davis is impressed by their wads of money and yellow Ferrari, and decides to join the firm. In no time he's making sales and settling into the groove of the office and all the after-hours perks, but the dream fades when Davis discovers the scam that is making all of the brokers wealthy beyond their dreams.

In this riveting, behind-the-scenes look at big business in the 1980's, an ambitious young broker (Charlie Sheen) is lured into the illegal, lucrative world of corporate espionage when he is seduced by the power, status and financial wizardry of Wall Street legend Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas). But he soon discovers that the pursuit of overnight riches comes at a price that's too high to pay.

Following a lengthy prison term, Gordon Gekko (Michael Douglas) finds himself on the outside looking in at a world he once commanded. Hoping to repair his relationship with his daughter, Winnie (Carey Mulligan), Gekko forges an alliance with her fiancé, Jake (Shia LaBeouf). But Winnie and Jake learn the hard way that Gekko is still a master manipulator who will stop at nothing to reclaim his rightful place at the top of Wall Street.

A riveting tale of desperation and betrayal based on David Mamet's Pulitzer Prize-winning play. Al Pacino, Jack Lemmon, Alec Baldwin, Ed Harris, and Kevin Spacey shine in this powerful story set in the world of real estate.

Will Smith stars in an inspirational true story about a struggling single father who dreams of a better life for his young son. Finding themselves homeless, he risks everything by embarking on an unpaid internship in a highly competitive stockbroker training program - where only one in twenty interns make the grade.

Based on the book of the same title and the actual events that occurred to collapse the Barings Bank.  Starring Ewan McGregor

"The film version of Jerry Sterner's 1989 play is an attempt to turn the corporate-takeover frenzy of the Reagan era into the material of farce. The main character is a greedy, unscrupulous Wall Street wizard known as Larry the Liquidator (Danny De Vito), who's trying to buy-and close down-a small, stable, profitable New England wire-and-cable company." --The New Yorker (2006)

From Academy Award®-nominated filmmaker, Charles Ferguson, comes INSIDE JOB, the first film to expose the shocking truth behind the economic crisis of 2008. The global financial meltdown, at a cost of over $20 trillion, resulted in millions of people losing their homes and jobs. Through extensive research and interviews with major financial insiders, politicians and journalists, INSIDE JOB traces the rise of a rogue industry and unveils the corrosive relationships which have corrupted politics, regulation and academia.  2008, Starring Matt Damon

Original HBO Comedy Starring James Garner

Alex Gibney examines the rise and fall of an infamous corporate juggernaut.

Food, Inc. lifts the veil on our nation's food industry, exposing how our nation's food supply is now controlled by a handful of corporations that often put profit ahead of consumer health, the
livelihood of the American farmer, the safety of workers and our own environment. Food, Inc. reveals surprising and often shocking truths about what we eat, how it's produced and who we have become as a nation. 

Winner of the Academy Award® for Best Foreign Language Film, The Counterfeiters tells the true story of Salomon Sorowitsch (Karl Markovics), a swindler who made a name for himself as Berlin's "King of the Counterfeiters." However, his life of women and easy money is cut short when he's arrested and placed in a Nazi concentration camp. With the German army on the verge of bankruptcy, Sorowitsch makes a sobering deal with his captors: in exchange for a comfortable bed, good food and fair treatment, Sorowitsch, along with the other hand-picked specialists, must counterfeit bank notes to fund the Nazi War effort. If he does as they say, he lives another day. If he rebels, he faces the same fate as the rest of the camp's prisoners. But if he lives, will he be able to live with himself?

Patrick Bateman (Christian Bale) is a Wall Street yuppie obsessed with success, status and style, with a stunning fiancé (Reese Witherspoon). He is also a psychotic killer who rapes, murders and dismembers both strangers and acquaintances without provocation or purpose. Based on the controversial novel by Bret Easton Ellis, the film offers a sharp satire to the dark side of yuppie culture in the ‘80s, while setting forth a vision that is both terrifying and chilling.

Directors Chris Hegedus (The War Room) and Jehane Noujaim couldn't have imagined the drama that awaited when they began documenting the creation of the pioneering e-commerce site For over a year they followed the company, the brainchild of childhood-friends-turned-business-partners software geek and doting single dad Tom Herman, and ambitious young business-school-grad-turned-company-CEO Kaleil Isaza Tuzman. During the rise of the Internet investment frenzy and the subsequent crash of the dot-economy, the cameras remain keyed into the human dynamic: the lifestyle compromises, the personal sacrifices, and the clash of philosophies and personalities that ultimately tear boyhood buddies Tom and Kaleil apart...almost.'s portrait of the cutthroat nature of American business culture and the choices one makes (or doesn't) to succeed poses the one question most documentaries ignore: Is it worth it? --Sean Axmaker

The revolution came when we weren't looking. It happened in a garage. In a dorm room. In countless hours of effort, imagining and intrigue. Apple co-founder Steve Jobs and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates were changing the way the world works, lives and communicates. The event-packed saga of the quirky visionaries who jump-started the future unfolds with exhilarating, cutting-edge style in Pirates of Silicon Valley. Noah Wyle (ER) portrays Jobs and Anthony Michael Hall (The Dead Zone) portrays Gates in this chronicle of the fierce and often humorous battle to rule the fledgling personal computer empire. "The story is almost Shakespearean... it's a tale of lust, greed, ambition, love and hate," writer/director Martyn Burke reflects. And it's a success story unlike any other.

They were handed $280 million dollars at age 28. They were on top of the world with a revolutionary idea to change our daily lives. And then it all came crashing down! This is the unbelievable story that follows the ups and downs of Joseph Park and Yong Kang, the founders of It's about the madness of chasing wealth, the lure of excess and the struggle for the American Dream. The Seattle Weekly raves - Filmmaker Wonsuk Chin manages to make the dot-com saga captivating again, thanks in part to his charmingly sympathetic central character.

Jamal Malik (Dev Patel) is just one question away from winning a fortune on India's version of "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" But how has this uneducated young man from the slums succeeded in providing correct responses to questions that have stumped countless scholars before him? And will he ultimately win it all or lose everything, including his true love?

Office SpaceUnable to endure another mind-numbing day at Initech Corporation, cubicle slave Peter Gibbons (Ron Livingston) gets fired up and decides to get fired. Armed with a leisurely new attitude and a sexy new girlfriend (Jennifer Aniston), he soon masters the art of neglecting his work, which quickly propels him into the ranks of upper management! Now the stage is set for Peter to carry out a high-tech embezzling scheme that's sure to mean the end of his job and a one-way ticket to easy street. Can he pull it off before all corporate hell breaks loose?

A look at America's Debt Crisis

"Philip Seymour Hoffman adds another great performance to his gallery of losers in Owning Mahowny, an engrossing, fact-based comedy-drama about the perils of compulsive gambling. The subject is hardly new to movies, but as Toronto bank-loan manager Dan Mahowny, Hoffman brings fresh depth and tortured humanity to his portrayal of a man who helplessly feeds his pathological need to gamble with millions in embezzled bank money that he can't afford to lose....Set in the early 1980s but timeless in its study of dysfunctional behavior, Owning Mahowny is a safe bet for film lovers everywhere. --Jeff Shannon"

Welcome to the world of The Bank, ripe with avarice and corruption, where O'Reilly and his ilk can thrive and honest Aussie battlers lose everything. Enter Jim Doyle (David Wenham) a maverick mathematician who has devised a formula to predict the fluctuations of the stock market. When he joins O'Reilly's fold, he must first prove his loyalty to the "greed is good" ethos. Which way will he go? What does he have to hide?

An in-depth look into the business of the porn industry.

"An enormously entertaining (if somewhat shallow) affair from blockbuster director Steven Spielberg. Leonardo DiCaprio stars as Frank Abagnale, Jr., a dazzling young con man who spent four years impersonating an airline pilot, a doctor, and a lawyer--all before he turned 21. All the while he's pursued by a dedicated FBI agent named Carl Hanratty (Tom Hanks)" --Bret Fetzer

A sprawling epic of family, faith, power and oil, THERE WILL BE BLOOD is set on the incendiary frontier of California’s turn-of-the-century petroleum boom. The story chronicles the life and times of one Daniel Plainview (Daniel Day-Lewis), who transforms himself from a down-and-out silver miner raising a son on his own into a self-made oil tycoon. When Plainview gets a mysterious tip-off that there’s a little town out West where an ocean of oil is oozing out of the ground, he heads with his son, H.W. (Dillon Freasier), to take their chances in dust-worn Little Boston. In this hardscrabble town, where the main excitement centers around the holy roller church of charismatic preacher Eli Sunday (Paul Dano), Plainview and H.W. make their lucky strike. But even as the well raises all of their fortunes, nothing will remain the same as conflicts escalate and every human value – love, hope, community, belief, ambition and even the bond between father and son – is imperiled by corruption, deception and the flow of oil.

An ex-mercenary turned smuggler (Leonardo DiCaprio). A Mende fisherman (Djimon Hounsou). Amid the explosive civil war overtaking 1999 Sierra Leone, these men join for two desperate missions: recovering a rare pink diamond of immense value and rescuing the fisherman's son, conscripted as a child soldier into the brutal rebel forces ripping a swath of torture and bloodshed across the alternately beautiful and ravaged countryside. Directed by Edward Zwick (Glory, The Last Samurai), this urgent, intensely moving adventure shapes gripping human stories and heart-pounding action into a modern epic of profound impact.

Fun With Dick And Jane provides comic relief alongside a relevant look at today’s corporate scandals. In the film, Dick Harpers’ (Carrey) years of hard work finally pay off when he is promoted to vice president of Globodyne, a worldwide business leader. After exactly one day at his new job, Globodyne is destroyed, leaving him and his loving wife, Jane (Leoni) without financial security. This sudden reversal of fortune has left them both unprepared to give up their comfortable lifestyle and Dick comes up with the brilliant idea of turning to robbery to pay the bills. Utilizing newfound skills, Dick and Jane exact hilarious revenge while teaching big business a lesson.

Danny Ocean likes his chances. All he asks is that his handpicked squad of 10 grifters and cons play the game like they have nothing to lose. If all goes right, the payoff will be a fat $150 million. Divided by 11. You do the math.

It's bolder. Riskier. The most dazzling heist yet. George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon and more reteam with director Steven Soderbergh for a split-second caper that stacks the deck with wit, style and cool. Danny Ocean again runs the game, so no rough stuff. No one gets hurt. Except for double-crossing Vegas kingpin Willy Bank (Al Pacino). Ocean's crew will hit him where it hurts: in his wallet. On opening night of Bank's posh new casino tower The Bank, every turn of a card and roll of the dice will come up a winner for bettors. And they'll hit him in his pride, making sure the tower doesn't receive a coveted Five Diamond Award. That's just the start of the flimflams. The boys are out to break The Bank. Place your bets!

Academy Award(R) winner Matt Damon and Edward Norton star in this story of passion, risk, and the extreme price of friendship! After losing a high-stakes card game, Mike (Damon) gives up gambling for law school and a fresh start with his girlfriend. But then his best buddy (Norton) gets out of prison and in over his head with a ruthless card shark (John Malkovich). From there, Mike's strong sense of loyalty –- and the lure of the game -– draw him back to the tables in a game he cannot afford to lose! 

Academy Award Winner Kevin Spacey and young Hollywood super star Kate Bosworth star in this clever & adreniline filled heist film. An MIT math whiz is recruited by a teacher to join a specialized team of card counters. They break away from their mentor before casino security finally catches up with them. Based on book "Bringing Down the House." It co-stars Lawrence Fishburne.

Academy Award winner Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey star in this adrenaline-charged thriller about the sexy, high-stakes world of sports betting, where fortunes can be made and lost with a flip of a coin.
When Brandon Lang (McConaughey) becomes the protégé of sports gambling's power player, Walter Abrams (Pacino), he swiftly becomes the golden boy of the high-rolling world for consistently picking football winners. Now, with millions on the line, he finds himself in a deadly game of con-versus-con with his new mentor.

Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe team with Director Ridley Scott in this powerful epic inspired by a true story. American Gangster is "a gritty masterpiece" (GQ).

Brad Pitt, Edward Norton and Helena Bonham Carter turn in powerful "performances of which movie legends are made" (Chicago Tribune) in this action-packed hit. A ticking-time-bomb insomniac (Norton) and a slippery soap salesman (Pitt) channel primal male aggression into a shocking new form of therapy. Their concept catches on, with underground "fight clubs" forming in every town, until a sensuous eccentric (Bonham Carter) gets in the way and ignites an out-of control spiral toward oblivion.

A couple more Very Loosely Business....
Party animal Tommy Callahan (Chris Farley) is definitely a few cans short of a six-pack. But after seven years, Tommy's finally earned his diploma - and a cushy job at Callahan Auto Parts. Returning home, Tommy gets some more great news: his dad (Brian Dennehy) is marrying a real "10" (Bo Derek), and Tommy will get the stepbrother (Rob Lowe) he always wanted. Awesome! But as fast as you can say "Who killed the keg?", the family business starts tanking. Now Tommy's got to hit the road with his dad's right-hand man, a smug number-cruncher (David Spade). 

The Big Lebowski - Hey...the Dude is in charge of the randsom money to get "Bunny" back!
This Coen brothers' hilariously twisted and irreverent cult comedy-thriller stars Jeff Bridges, John Goodman, Steve Buscemi and Julianne Moore. Join the "Dude" and his bowling buddies on their journey that blends unforgettable characters, kidnapping, a case of mistaken identity and White Russians. Enter the visually unique and entertaining world from the creative minds of the Coen brothers and remember: the Dude abides.

Must Read Economy Links

Drunken Ben Bernanke Tells Everyone at Neighborhood Bar How Screwed U.S. Economy Really Is,21059/

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