Thursday, August 18, 2011

Quick Notes

Wasn't close to a computer for the rest of the day after my last post.  Meetings and getting ready for the second practice of the day.  SODA finished well amid the turmoil and may have found a bottom, with any rebound this could be a nice gainer from here.  But things are looking shaky.  Although we didn't establish a new low, a significant drop like this so soon after the last rounds of selling and short rebound period, all bets are off right now.  I'm keeping my short status and with options expiration tomorrow and the weekend coming up, I definately won't be doing any buying unless an extremely favorable set-up becomes apparent.   Although today was an ugly one for the retirement accounts, I was really happy with my net 6.4% gain in my trading account today.  Lets hope for a stable day tomorrow...except for BID and OPEN (and the financials can tank to keep the FAZ trading going).

Reuters:  The day ahead

SODA Follow up

Today's action has been pretty for my trading account that's largely short and showing about a 6% gain today.  Just to quickly follow up with SODA.  Today's strength is impressive with today's selloff, and I think would make for a good lower-risk buy.  But this could get really ugly at the end of the day, so I'm going to wait until the end of the day and see how things play out, because on a decent market day this is an easy few points. 

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

1st Day of Practice!

The first day of my real profession was today (i don't use job, since I don't consider what I do work).  I am an assistant coach for a NCAA Division 1 University, and it's the best time of year....when everyone's back and before classes get into full swing.  So because of this, posting might be a little sporatic as we start practice at 6:30am the next few days with meetings and afternoon practices thrown in I'm going to try and get a piece of the market action when I can.  But, I'll add a couple things:

1.  Pretty much nothing day today...which is expected.  The lineup tomorrow is loaded:
CPI, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and Philadelphia Fed Survey all come out pre-market.  Lots of data to digest.

2.  Loved the action on OPEN today...down 5.5% on a flat market day.  awesome.  (and it always feels good when you sell a stock, and it does nothing the next day as is the case with NKE)

3. SODA has fallen.  Just a few weeks back, Cramer was all over this stock as the next great company...then poor guidance...and all of a sudden it's in the tank:

**note:  these charts update daily so prices may be different that day of post.**

Where it bottoms from here is a tough call.   Down 51% off it's high, $30 looks like it would be a last line of defense support area.  However, today's action could mark the turnaround point as a hammer was formed on 3x average volume today.  Although you'd like to see more volume to really see a shakeout off the weak holders, this looks like an attractive entry point, but I would have a tight stop in place just in case the carnage isn't over.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Sold NKE

Just a quick update.  I sold out of my Nike position just seconds before the close at 83.25.  Although this was a good day where the market sold off at mid day and came back, there was weakness at the close I didn't like to see.  I think today's small drop could pave the way for some gains tomorrow, but I wanted to get out with a profit and load some ammo if this drops back down under 80.  So in my trading accounts I have a short bias, with FAZ, OPEN, and BID on the downside, and BWLD for the upside (with GRMN and CVD as long positions, but have held for the longer term).

Thursday is going to be a key day this week before options expiration.  With reports of CPI, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and Leading Indicators, there's going to be a glut of info to digest.

FAZ Chart

Tim Knight at SlopeofHope profiled one of the bearish positions today that I'm holding right now.  Basically I'm just plugging n a different chart of the stock here.  His chart just goes back to July 1st and shows the break of a double top on huge volume followed by the recent pullback on lighter trade.  On the 1 year chart things look just as good.  This is looking poised to start the move back up and that's bad news for financials.

Etrade Baby Loses Everything!!!

Great Spoof on E-trade commercial baby from college humor after last weeks movements:

Monday, August 15, 2011

Week of August 15th

Just a few links to lead into the trading week.  I'm looking for things to be semi-volitile again and looking to unload a couple long stocks on any strength.  I think there are some great companies to hold going forward, but I think there are going to be better buying opportunities ahead.

Minyanville:  The Trading Week Ahead 
ChrisPurruna:  Identifying a Change in Trend
Forbes:  All the Cool Kids are Trading at Night
Stocktwits:  All Star Charts Blog:  Retracement Levels
Buydon'thold:  Sell Signal still in Effect
Old School Value Blog:  7 Way to get Mind Blowing Returns
Barrons:  What CSCO can do to get its groove back

Forbes:  Most Rabid Football Fans - Packers #1!  Not only that, Nice to see the Bears all the way down at #29.  And the Jets, led by their loudmouth moron of a coach Rex Ryan, are #32!