Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Gambling sometimes pays off!

Again, plan on posting more as earnings wind down and i'm getting back into the swing of things now with the market.  Conference Championships were this weekend and it was a great weekend.  The men ran solid and finished where predicted, and with a team loaded with 6 freshman, that's sometimes all you can ask for.  The women pulled out the victory for the first conference title in 22 years!

Anyways, my big short so far this year has been OpenTable (OPEN).  A once darling momentum stock that really, doesn't has a business model that is immune to fierce competition.  I shorted the stock back in the summer at 80.70, and after a brief move to almost 90, it's been in a free-fall since.   It touched under 40 before the October rally took it back to the 51+ area just 5 days ago.  It's deteriorated the last week and was trading at 43 today.

I was going to take the rational, safe, and smart route of cover the short today prior to earnings being released after the bell.  But, I held off after looking at the chart and figuring that at most it would rally $5-6 on a great report.  This is where my gambling and trading mentality collided.  I was taking a 50/50 bet that the stock either rally hard or sell off.  Although good odds, I would never walk up to a roulette table in Vegas and throw down that kind of money on red or black and hope for the best...but that's what I did today.  My only real rational was I was already "up" by 37pts., so I could afford a loss of 5 to let it ride.  But I shouldn't have considered at all where the stock came from, but where it was now---I would never buy a stock going into earnings with the chance to loss that much on one announcement, but my today I broke that rule.

Well after getting home from practice and checking the press release and after hours trades, the stock is down almost 15% after hours (~$6.40).  The feeling was like I hit my number playing craps on got paid.  A great feeling, but really it's not how I should be going about my trades.  But you know what?  Today, it feels great to be a gambler...and maybe I'll just close out the trade tomorrow and buy a iPad with my winnings!