Thursday, September 1, 2011

Heading into Labor Day Weekend

Tomorrow won't give me much of a chance to follow the market.  Workout in the morning with one of our women not competing, then jumping on the bus and heading to Iowa for a meet that night.  So, i'll likely just be a partial observer when I get a chance.  And likely the only move I would make is to sell my IMAX position if the market is looking ugly.   FSL is still worthless company so I'm not worried about that one at all...same with OPEN.  Tomorrow's real test with the jobs report will be the S&P holding above 1200, otherwise it's a safe bet it will close that gap to 1180 where it should find some support.

Just one good link to share:  Winning while your losing

Power outage and McDonalds, Goldmans Sachs, First Solar

Late last night the power cord of my laptop went out...and felt totally hopeless as my battery died out.  The timing couldn't be worse with the Badgers playing there home opener tonight (and since I don't waste money on cable, I was going to watch on ESPN3).  Also with our team traveling to our first meet tomorrow, and the labor day weekend, it was a bad time to have to wait for something to get shipped (because I refuse to pay $80 for a adapter that you can buy shipped for $10 online).  That may seem cheap when you think about throwing thousands of dollars around for stock trades, but you don't become wealthy wasting your money on stupid crap!

Getting back up to speed on McDonalds, that has nicely moved up to touch all time highs over the past week, I'm looking at my enter strategy.  The stock is holding that 90 area trying to figure out where to go.  I think if it breaks below 89.50, it could chop around and move down at least to the 87-88 range before making another attempt.  If it can clear the 91.5-92, I think the move towards 100 will be on.  So, if it clears 91.5, I'll look to start a position for my long term holdings, maybe a 1/3 or 1/2 of the position that I want then if it goes up another buck or two I'll add the rest.  If it drops under 89, I'll wait a bit longer to see if it will drop to 85-86 area and enter with a 1/2 position or so.

On the other note....FSL and IMAX continue to piss me off, and I'm close to closing out IMAX.  OPEN is still doing beautifully down to 57.80 and within range of it's 52-week low of 53.44.  I think we're going to get there, and that's when the real magic will happen.  

Looking ahead to tomorrow.  As Goldman Sachs seems to be pissing everyone off lately and no longer are the money making gold standard of Wall Street, they also cut it's non-farm payroll expectations for tomorrow in that can't help the bull case.

One last stock to throw out before I get back into things.  Watch FSLR.  It fell below 100 yesterday and is down a few more percent today.  If it can't hold up today or tomorrow and stay above 97, this thing has a drop to 90-91 written all over it.

Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Shut the door on OPEN!

Beautiful.  Next support at $59!

Looks like the momentum chasers are getting spooked.  Traders getting out of TNH.  Wow, like no one expects the market to go down...when it does, traders freak!

Last Day of August & LNKD

Good start to the day today.  Employment payroll numbers were ok (+91K vs. expectations of +100K), and we have a nice rally continuing today.  What makes it better is all my longs are up (not like IMAX yesterday) and my shorts are either down or just fractionally up (BID, OPEN, FSL).  That's the perfect storm I like to see....ready for any downward move, but making money with everyone on the upside.

A few thoughts today.  I still like the FAZ trade going forward.  Financials are going to suck again sometime....otherwise there wouldn't still be strong consideration of more action by the the Fed of a QE3.  Also, excitement of Buffet's investment of BAC is still lingering...once that wears off and then investors start getting hurt with the price dropping it will get ugly again.  One of the contributers at SlopeofHope brought up the topic of other Buffet buys that have been bad for the common stock investor (I'm too lazy to find the link from last week).  But basically, he bought in and "rescued" GE and GS a few years back and made huge money on the deal...largely from the sweet deal that includes his preferred dividends of 10%.  But anyone holding the common stock is in the red right now (and Buffet's own calls in GS common stock are just barely in the green above his $115 exercise price).  So he might have bailed out the companies, but it hasn't been a windfall for investors.  So no, you can't invest like Warren Buffet.

Other than that, we have a rally going today and historically the last day of August and leading into the Labor day weekend is positive.  But now that everyone is getting comfortable with stock market going up....i just when it seems to do what you don't expect it to do.

I've been up since 5:30am for morning practice.  Instead of just an easy run, one of the athletes needed to get the afternoon workout done since they have class during regular practice time, so already 10miles in the bank with a workout, and get to come back and do it again in 6 hours.  In the meantime, I'm going to check to see if any of my brokers will allow me to short LNKD now.  I think this stock is a joke, and next time this thing enters the 90's, i'm shorting what I can (currently 86.55).

*note:  Chart updates automatically, so price may change from posting.**

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

End of tuesday thoughts

A day of frustration.  I have long and shorts, so on a day like today you'd think the action wouldn't bother me too much.  Well, it did.  Not only did all my shorts happen to go up ( FAZ did register a gain in my favor), the long I entered managed to go down.  Yeah, one of those days.  FSL just pissed me off because it's been dead boring for a few days, then today in the last hour of trading it rallies 6% based on.....??  Chart below.  I'm still sticking to my guns.  If the market keeps this upswing, I'll have to cover soon, but any weakness and this thing is going to get shattered.   Practice at 6am tomorrow, so keeping it short.

MarketWatch:  Technical indicators are favoring the recovery.
Bespoke:  What the market tends to do the last two days of each month
FoxNews:  Here's where your tax money is going on "green" programs!

Chop day & ARCO

The action today is pretty expected after a couple rally days with some sideways action.  The small selloff in the morning combined with the evening out of the indices gives no further indication where this market is going.  Yesterday I did follow through and sell short some FSL at a price of 11.15.  It looks brutal on the long term chart and there seemed to be a total lack of interest in the stock (at least compared to other companies) during the last week.  The IMAX buy was a bit of protection in the face of a rallying market.

With McDonalds showing growth and the stock at an all-time high, another stock to take a serious look at is Arcos Dorados (ARCO).  MCD's sold off it's 1,750 restaurants in South America a few years back to private investors with a 20 year franchise agreement.  It has the largest share of the Latin America fast foot market with over a 12% market share and franchises in 19 countries.  It went public earlier this year and may be a good way to get foreign exposure with a dominant brand that's growing quickly.  

:note:  *current price of 27.40.  Chart automatically updates to price may be different than when posted.***

Monday, August 29, 2011

Buy IMAX and Short Idea - FSL

I will be shorting FSL today.  I'm just waiting to see if the market takes off here in the last hour of trading (we should see some movement soon), otherwise I'm getting in before tomorrow.  FSL has not moved much in the surge of the market of the last I'm taking that weakness as a sign to go short.

Just bought into IMAX at 17.80.

Mid-day move checkup - MCD, NOV, IMAX, TNH

The move up today has bumped the S&P at the top end of it's symmetrical wedge traders have been looking out for.  Things are looking bullish especially if the market can break through to the upside.  The market hit my 1205 target that I posted yesterday and has stalled out from there.  If it can't break through and it sells off into the close, the wedge will just be getting tighter and the waiting game for the breakout will continue.   It's hovering at 1204 right now...where will it go.....

In light of the move up, i'm staying stubborn with my short positions but not looking to add more, and I'm looking to add some long positions to ride any further move up.  Still not interested in Gold until it breaks under that 170 area.  Long idea's are IMAX, NOV, MCD.

McDonalds I talked about last week...and it's at the breakout point now at $90.40.

*note: charts update automatically so price may be different than at posting*

A stock that has been killing me is TNH (now @ $187).  I started watching this thing hard back in June at the 120 stage and looking to buy on a drop to 105-110 for my long term account.   I think it reached 114 or so, then it just kept going up, up and up!  Fortunately I bought some POT so I have exposure to this area, but this is up 50% while POT is only up 14% since i got in.  Looking at the chart I'd say short the thing but stocks like this tend to go up much longer than you think they can.

*note: charts update automatically so price may be different than at posting*

Sunday, August 28, 2011

The Week Ahead, Aug. 29th

With Wall Street expected to opened as planned tomorrow, the tone for the week will be set early.  A rally off Friday's move would paint a very bullish sign with S&P 1205 as a key level of resistance to break though, with 1122 area as the key support level not to break.  I feel like this will be a choppy week where we'll challenge one of those levels....which level depends on how the market reacts tomorrow.  Volume could be light if everyone isn't back to trading, which could lead to further volatility 

I'm anticipating to be more active this week as things have calmed down and i can spend a little more time following the market during the day.  Though Friday we travel for our first meet of the year, so it's a short week to get some good trades done.

A few Links:
Minyanville:  How Hurricane could affect insurance stocks
USA Today:  Food Stamp us on the Rise
LA Times:  Are we too Bearish?
Barrons:  Buffet has no fear, why should you?
BusinessWeek:  Buffet's deal capitalizes on bank weakness
Barrons:  No Steve Jobs, Apple will still go on
USA Today:  Apple IPhone 5, New IPad to come out in October
TheOnion:  New Apple CEO Tim Cook:  I'm Thinking Printers!
24/7Wall Street:  Short bets on the rise
24/7 Wall Street:  Top Analyst Calls for the week
24/7 Wall Street:  Company Winners and Losers of Hurricane
BusinessWeek:  Gambling in Macau is Hot!
Bloomberg:  Corn harvest down
Boomberg:  Groupon CEO--Company never been stronger
Pantagraph:  Escalade Most targeted car by thieves
Wisconsin State Journal:  The Bucky Wagon to return!