Saturday, August 27, 2011

Plush Trader: List of Great Trading/Business/Money Movies

Plush Trader: List of Great Trading/Business/Money Movies: Trading, Sales, Business...or any money related movie Let me know if I've missed any good ones! Trading Places Sporting billionaire brot...

Friday, August 26, 2011

Apple comeback

And what did you learn from AAPL?  Even though Steve Jobs has been the driving force behind the company, his resigning is not going to kill the company overnight.  So anyone who sold Wednesday after hours during it's $20-25 drop or early the next day, have learned the lesson the hard way.

Chart forApple Inc. (AAPL)

Links and FSLR

At mid-day, this market has gotten stronger and I think will get stronger as the day goes on.  Many stocks on my watch list are up 3-4% today with just a few barely in the red.  If we get a reversal in the last hour today, things will get ugly.

Economy weaker than expected last quarter...then came the market sell off.
Bernanke say economy needs help, but offers no QE3...yet.  
3 Steps to Short selling...and talks about one of my stocks...OPEN
Bloomberg: Buffett BAC deal gains $1.3 after first day!
Reuters:  BA's Dreamliner finally pushing off

I profiled FSLR earlier this week, and the stock has hit $100, becoming positive for the week and butting up against it's 20MA.  The 50 day is about 15% higher at 115 and the area of resistance looks to be around 108.  So this is a crucial area to hold or rally into the close.

IPO/Hot Stock Check-ups

One area I've been fascinated with the last couple months is following the new batch of IPO's and hot stock, especially the social network and online companies.  I've traded them successfully on the long side (SODA) and the short side (FSL, OPEN--currently have OPEN short).  I tried to short LinkedIn about a dozen times in July and early august, but my brokers didn't have shares available to do it ( i should have done an options strategy).  P and Z are also favorites to watch and waiting for the right move.  I was starting to drink the SODA juice and believe it could be a long term thing, but after the quick run-up  in July, I sold out and was fortunately out when the carnage started.

The thing about these stocks is most of them are going to be pretty worthless down to road or just hit a road block in growth.

-OPEN has already pissed off many customers who have dropped their expensive service, and it's just a matter of time before others come in and compete with them with a cheaper price model.

-LNKD doesn't have the traction of a facebook, and I feel like the site is still pretty clumsy.  And where is the big revenue going to come from???

-Pandora is losing money and any attempt they make to really make money will create an opportunity for another startup to take the free radio users away.

-Zillow I think has the best chance of all of them, but they will act more like car companies...make a boat load of money in good economic times, have terrible results during recessionary periods.

-FSL.  To be honest, I don't even know any fundamental reason why I took a bearish view on this stock in the first place.  When it was 15 I didn't like it, at 20 was crazy.  But looking at the chart and seeing an IPO sink within days/weeks of coming public should tell you that insiders can't cashout fast enough.  If they are dumping as soon as they can, why would anyone want to buy?

-SODA:  I think the magic is gone.  They'll need some outstanding growth numbers here in the U.S to get people to jump the bandwagon again.  When you get hurt that big and that fast, traders are not going to come flooding back in.  (Think's coming back, but still 25% below it's high).  The idea that people are going to pay $100+ for the machine and buy the syrup is pretty ridiculous when you think about it.  Maybe it does win taste tests...but really, people are lazy and like to pay for bottled water!

Thursday, August 25, 2011

MCD Update

Just from a post last week.  MCD made it's first stab to break away and made a new intraday high of 90.45 this morning and been pushed back.  I don't see this stock going much further than 88 (with normal market conditions) before making another test.  

*note: chart updates itself, so prices may change from posting*

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Two safety picks

Dividend paying stocks are the best of both world these days.  A dividend payment better than bonds or interest bearing accounts, and the upside of stock movement.  Here's two good stocks to play in that sector.  Sysco and Phillip Morris.

Sysco (SYY - $27.15):  Though hit recently for rising food costs and discounts given to customers hurt it's numbers this past quarter, and the chart isn't especially appealing, it's a stodgy company that will remain strong during a weak economy.  It used the last recession to pick up market share by acquiring rivals and still increasing it's dividend which currently yields 3.8%

*note: these charts continuously update, so prices may change from the time it was posted**

Phillip Morris (PM - $70.00) is a favorite of mine that I've held in retirement account along with MO for the past 5 years.  It yields 3.7% and is up 42% in the last year.  I favor PM over MO which yields 5.9% because of the prospects of the international business growing at a much faster rate than the domestic business of MO.

*note: these charts continuously update, so prices may change from the time it was posted**

Aug. 24th

The key today will be holding the gains from yesterday.  A one day rally will keep more money on the sidelines and away from a real rally.   Despite the market weakness, financials are doing very well as Bank of America is up 9% from comments by analysts that the stock has been oversold.  I'm not buying that.  As much as the stock has fallen this month, the company is still not worth buying.

A few to read:
Associated Press:  Moody's downgrades Japan From Aa2 to Aa3.  Love these ratings systems.
TheStreet: Hurricane Irene may hit the insurance industry.  Start betting on the Hurricane effects
Reuters:  Sprint to start selling IPhone 5 in mid-October
Yahoo: Adidas unveils barefoot shoes I'm not totally against this concept, but if you do go into this type of shoe, you need to start training over from scratch and give yourself at least 6 months to build up your normal training levels.  Pretty nice you can pay $90 to run essentially barefoot!
Reuters:  Google agree's to pay $500mil for playing Canadian drug ads in U.S.

Gold is definitely taking a breather...with GLD down to 173 after getting over 184 on Monday.  I think it's a good hedge against market uncertainty, but I'd wait until its back to 160 before thinking about buying in again.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Interview & The Day Ahead - Tuesday, Aug. 23

Late posting tonight after a lengthy couple phone interviews tonight after practice.  They went very well and it may cause a tough decision down the road.  The pay isn't great and it's at a Division 3 school, but i would have much more responsibility and would be in a much better location...a major city where I would know a lot more people and not to far where I went to college.  So, I got that going for me.....

Regarding the market action.  The markets attempted to rally at the open, then fell apart, then attempted again, then fell apart again in the closing minutes.  GS lead the charge lower in the closing minutes down 5 bucks and close on big volume to it's lowest point in two and a half years.   This points to a weak open on Tuesday, but maybe a good chance to buy the dip and play for an intraday reversal.

A few more to read:
Reuters:  The Day Ahead
USA Today:  Stunted Corn Crop could Raise Prices
Bespoke:  Earnings Season Big Movers (some real big bombs)
Business Insider:  Insider Selling at Groupon (not the best sign when there getting out BEFORE the IPO).
Business Insider:  10 Huge Questions about the Groupon IPO filing
TheStreet:  Apple the favorite among hedge funds
Morningstar High Conviction Buys
TraderPlanet:  The 2% Rule  
StockTwits:  The Reformed Broker:  Why Shorting can be tough  (but stocks seem to fall a lot easier than they rise!).
Yahoo:  Toyota introduces new Camry
Bloomberg:  Facebook seeks more aquisitions
Bloomberg:  Boeing backed up with inventory of Dreamliners

Monday, August 22, 2011

Another Trade Idea: McDonalds

McDonalds has been impressive this month, still eaking out a gain for the month and closing in an all time high.  It pays a dividend of 2.4% and even if the economy tanks, people will be going out for cheap calories.  If this stock shows any weakness (and it barely has) and dips to the 84-85 range, it would be a good long term pickup with some margin of safety.  And if it can bust to a new high and hit $90/share, I would be even more compelled to get in.

**note:  this chart updates each day, so price will be different than the day it is posted**

Trade Radar - FSLR

Suntech Power reported a wider than expected loss this morning (Reuters article) but is up in trading today with hope that spending in the sector will rebound in the next quarter an beyond.  This brings me to a stock I've traded before and is regarded as the best of breed of the bunch, FSLR.  Sitting a $88, it's had a horrendous half year, down over 49% from it's 52wk high (less than 6months ago), and down 29% for the month.  The stock is in an obvious downtrend:

**note:  this chart updates each day, so price will be different than the day it is posted**

I'm closely watching it because if/when we rally, this thing will take off.  It's profitable and is anticipated to grow about 20% over the next several years.  While the "trend is your friend" and this stock is obviously getting hit, it's now at the bottom of it's channel and could easily move to the 100-105 range without much resistance.    The stock hasn't touched this low since late 2008, so this is the best valuation this stock has seen in years.

The Week of Aug. 22

Friday was a good day...I was busy with the team other activties, and really didn't get a chance to look at the market until after the close.  Fortunately, my positioning made it another profitable day.  This week I'm looking to become more active.  After the last two weeks of rollercoaster moves, where do we stand?  Nobody knows, and if they tell you they do, they're just guessing too.

On the Bulls side, I'm looking for people to buy into some stocks after depressed prices offer some nice entry points.  Also, the shorts could be looking to lock in some profits soon and cover any short positions they may have.  The weakening market will also give more hope to bulls that Bernanke will initiate more stimulus activities to the economy to prop it up.  Good for us in the short term, but still just putting a band aid on bullet wound.

The Bears will tell you the end is coming and the drop to Dow 7000 is on its way.  I find this totally hard to believe, but anything is possible.  The Elliot Wave theorists point that we are either in a "Wave 4" bounce, or the beginning of a Wave 5 retest of the lows, with grim days ahead.  So.....wait and see, and then we'll tell you what wave we're in after the fact.  Real technical.

I'm anticipating an attempt to rally on Monday on some bottom fishing. Or, we'll sell off.  Again, I don't know, you just have to be ready to play what presents itself.

I'm catching up on my reading, so here's a few from the last couple weeks, with more coming soon.
Minyanville:  The week ahead
Zerohedge:  12 Points confirming the double dip recession is ahead
Marketwatch:  No double dip, but profits are going down
StockTwits:  The Insider Buying Lie
Optionetics:  This is Why We Trade
Attitrade:  Keep yourself accountable to someone
Investors:  QE gives US as Boost, and Hangover
Yahoo:  Goldman Sachs New Money Making Machine---Warehouses!
MarketWatch: Google going to 1,500
TraderPlanet:  10 Key Questions Measuring your Trading Progress
StockTwits.  Goldman COO gives advice to new Grads
Bloomburg:  Expect small growth rebound, no recession
CNBC:  Fed shooting blanks?

I'll have more later I read through more.