Thursday, September 29, 2011

Week update and taking off for the weekend

This week has shown no clear direction and no real reason to take any positions long or short.  I did sell my FAS position today for a loss, and i'm not real happy about that trade overall.  I rushed into it with the expectation that the market would rally the rest of the day, but the market crumbled and instead of getting out, I held through the close.  On top of that, although tomorrow could go either direction depending on the Euro news of the day, I should have held since end of quarter window dressing for fund managers should keep stocks up through tomorrow.  I'm not so pissed about the loss of cash, but the timing was not the best.

Looking for buys, I'm intrigued with WYNN and LVS.  Even with the issues in Japan, just like the EU, these stocks are going to bounce one day to the next depending on the news out that day.  WYNN might be a stock I pick up if I have a few minutes in the morning and it drops a bit more.  Also, seeing NKE down another buck or two would be nice, but the tides seem to be changing with AAPL and the other strong players in this market slipping over the last few days.

Tomorrow will be a no-trade day for me.  Team leaving tomorrow morning for a meet on Saturday, so I should see the open, but that's about it.

One final note...don't always believe those charts...even a bullish reversal in FSLR a few days ago couldn't save the stock from a huge drop in the ensuing days.

If I don't post before the weekend, big sports weekend.  I can't remember the time when all my favorite sports teams were so phenomenal...all at once!  But the two biggies...UW vs. Nebraska & Brew Crew vs. Arizona.  Combine that with our races...come Sunday night I'm going to be exhausted.

Go Badgers & Brewers!  (and Packers & Bills!)

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

A few quick notes, NFLX, P, OPEN, and FAS buy

With the run up the last couple days, things are looking primed again to short...but not yet.  Europe is "maybe" going to be bailed out..big surprise.  I think the rally continues today for the rest of the day and we end up even higher, so i'm looking at a few ETF's to play long and make a little money that.  On the short side, I'm looking at stocks like MGM (a safer short) and P (up 20% the last couple days).

On Friday i got in and out of GLD, and sold of 60% of my FAZ position (which was timely, but wish I would have sold it all now!).  I also had a order in to close my BID short, but it just missed by a few cents, and yesterday I didn't go through with closing it out.  Today I just bought shares of FAS to play this rally day and hedge against my FAZ, with the plan to get out by the end of the day.  I think the S&P will get over 1200 (at 1193 now) and maybe hit 1205 before the close.

A stock that may find some momentum again, Sears Holding has put up advertising for leasing most of it's Sears and Kmart stores, making it more of a real estate play.  This was the big talk a few years back when he took over the company, and nothing came of it, but with the stock down from the 200 level, it may finally be coming true.  Watch this one swing a lot near term and wouldn't be surprised to see a 3-4 day rally of the stock.

A few reads:
The insiders have quit buying stocks
But, here are 29 stock insiders and hedge funds are buying!
Whitney Tilson on the Netflix Fiasco
John Dorfman buys/sells of the biggest 20 stocks
Companies that employees are losing hope
A first-Warren Buffet to buy back shares

Last night looking at NFLX i was hoping to see it drop down to the 128 level for a buy and play the bounce, but with it down on today's big move, I don't feel like the risk is worth it today.  OPEN is one of my shorts that i've been holding on tightly, and while it's gotten back up to 50 today, I still like the chart: