Thursday, September 8, 2011

New Wall Street-ish Movie Out This Fall: Margin Call

Check out the trailer for the new movie starring Kevin Spacey depicting the events that lead to the 2008 market crash.  Coming to theaters Oct. 21st.

Not sure how I feel about this one.  If your a financial geek you might get into it, but it looks kinda boring.  I'll wait for it to come out on DVD....which shouldn't take too long.

Bear Flag, FAZ & IMAX trades

Good posting about the current bear flag formation of the markets...except for the hideous bear flags on the webpage.  I guess bears = its a good correlation of the market going down.

I like the movement in FAZ but got pulled away this morning when it was lower.  Currently have a order in to add to my position...

...update....just picked up more at 57.90.  I chased a little higher as I was trying to get cute and run it down to 57.60, but didn't quite make it.   At least I got it though....missed out on MGM as it's down 5% since I posted about it earlier.  Also closed out my IMAX position earlier today at 18.27 for a small gain (.45/share).  Was never really comfortable in that position so it feels good to close that out without any damage.

Packers Season Opener! MCD, MGM, FAZ...and OPEN tanks!

I feel like I should be playing this market more...the swings are beautiful if you're a swing long as your on the right side.   The only real problem I have buying right now is the solid companies have seemed to rebound nicely and are not at great discounts.  With the long term view of problems with our economy, even for short term trades I don't want to buy into average companies since those will get slammed if (when) bad news surfaces.  And look....Groupon IPO cancelled (Forbes).

From an post i did last Thursday, MCD managed to drop down into my 87-88 buy range on Tuesday hitting 87.42.  I missed that play while working and it rebounded...but I think we'll get another chance to buy under 88 before any real strong move up.  (currently 89.77)

Short idea:  MGM.  I like casino plays, but this is the weakest of the bunch swimming in debt.  I think this bounces around the 9.70-11 area for quite a while.  (currently $11.08 at posting)

And I really like FAZ here ($55.86).  It's a big mover and you could lost 5pts really fast, but financials just don't have least until there's some clarity around Bank of America (and the excitement around the Buffet investment is wearing off).  If you don't time it perfectly, you're going to get another chance to make money or at least get out even.

FAZ:  $55.86 at time of posting

...and just from the wire while writing this that's music to my ears....Google is buying Zagat!...and is crushing OpenTable.  While I'm not sold on the restaurant reservation space, I own Google, so I'll have exposure if it is a valuable business, but on the news OPEN is down 9%, which is great news because I was getting a little annoyed how strong it was lately.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Mid-day update and MON

The selloff this morning has been slowly been chipped away and I'm seeing quite a few stock heading into the green this afternoon (and non other than my "wish-i-bought" nemesis TNH hitting a new all time high over $187. Oil stock are coming back and Gold dropped into the red mid-day.

One stock jumping out as a buy to me today is Monsanto (MON).  Still down 3% even as POT and TNH are green, i like these divergences within groups.  The concern surrounding the stock is that some of it's engineered corn crops are not resisting the root worms they are designed too, and crops are being lost.   While this is a concern, they really can't determine the cause for this until they conclude analysis of the bugs into next year.  So, look for a relief bounce soon...I wouldn't stay for a long time, but could be good for a quick 5 points (current price $63.90).

The (short) week Ahead - August 6th

Short 4 day trading week is under way.  I totally missed the action Friday heading out for our meet, but what I saw when I got back was good.  My short performed well, and my recent long buy IMAX just fell less than a 1%.  And it's nice to see my longer buys were down less than the 2.5%  the market drop.

The bigger percentage drops of the IPO/hot stocks that I follow paint a sign that the market looks like trouble is ahead for at least the short term.  And this time of year is seasonally a weak period until the second half of until Bernanke announces some stimulus deal, I think the downside is much more likely than upside.

Read the week ahead Trading Radar 

If the markets are starting to fall off....look for oil to sell off hard with the markets again.  I think I'm going to pull out of my NOV long term stock this week as I feel I could get back in a better price in the next few weeks.  The OIH looks week and sub 120 appears to be in it's future.

***At 127.70 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

On the long side, Gold seems the way to go, after a gap up and closing a 183 on Friday....a move towards 187 and possibly 190 looks pretty favorable and a pullback to 180 closing the gap would be a good buying point:

***At 183.24 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

I also offer up one of my favorite defensive plays..without being a short...the LQD.  Investment Grade Bond Fund with a 4.5% dividend and doing great during the equity sell-offs.  Currently at $112.69.

***At 112.69 at time of chart posting since charts auto update***

Long day and long run at practice today around the trails.  Scary to think that a windy 70 degree day feels chilly.  It may be nice for working out, but I still love the heat.  It's late and I plan to sleep through the first half hour or so of the market tomorrow.  I know most traders get up hours before the market and do readings/charting/whatever, but that first half hour is a terrible time to trade unless you're a daytrader and try to fade the opening moves.  I have no interest in that and I like to check things when the initial panic/euphoria has subsided.  They say all the amateurs trade the open, while the professionals trade the close.  I'll try my luck in these markets by siding with the professionals.  Happy trading!